How many Royals will be headed to Arlington instead of on a vacation?
Believe it or not, the All-Star Game is coming up fast. Voting should start next week sometime and with the Royals playing as well as they ever have - Tuesday night’s win cemented a tie for the best start through 50 games ever achieved by the franchise - It’s time to start thinking about doing what Royals fans do best: stuffing some ballots.
Of course, Royals fans won’t be the only ones stuffing the ballots. And for all the ado that was made of Royals fans voting too hard in 2015, the team ultimately ended up with only four starters (though Alex Gordon missed out due to injury) and three reserves. Don’t get me wrong, that’s a lot of All-Stars, but they were also the best team in the AL and it still left plenty of room for other teams to be included.
So, with the Royals being among the league’s best, but not the best, this time, despite their fantastic start, how many All-Stars can the team expect to earn this year? Let's break it down position by position
Potential Royals: Salvador Perez
Competitors: Ryan Jeffers MIN, Adley Rutschmann BAL, Shea Langeliers OAK, Jonah Heim TEX
Of all the positions, this should be the easiest win. The fact of the matter is that previous All-Star appearances are absolutely a factor in having the name recognition to make it to the All-Star Game again. Salvy has been an All-Star eight times, including as a reserve last season. He has been easily the best catcher in the American League to this point of the season and is, in fact, having his best season at age 34. If he keeps this up, he’s going to get significant MVP consideration, not just an All-Star starting nod.
Jonah Heim is only on this list because he was the starter last year. Ryan Jeffers is only on this list because he is second in fWAR to Salvy as he’s quietly having a very good season. But quietly having a good season for a third- or fourth-place team does not get you to the All-Star Game. Shea Langeliers has been very similar to Jeffers in production, but might get a nod because he’s one of only a few Athletics who is playing particularly well.
Adley Rutschman is the real competition here. He’s playing about as well as Jeffers and his Orioles have the third-best record in the AL. He also has name recognition as having been a very highly touted prospect who has played well and he made the All-Star team as a reserve alongside Salvy last year.
Last year the All-Star teams each featured three catchers, so even if Salvy doesn’t make it as the starter (which he most assuredly should, given the factors outlined above) he will be in as an alternate. Adley Rutschman will most assuredly make it in some form as well. If I were forced to choose who the third catcher would be right now, I would guess Langeliers.
Potential Royals: Vinnie Pasquantino
Competitors: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR, Josh Naylor CLE, Anthony Rizzo NYY, Yandy Díaz TB
This one is going to be quite hard for Vinnie. Despite his incredible hot streaks and how consistently we have relied upon him as a fanbase, the cold streaks have had their toll and before Wednesday’s game, he had a wRC+ of only 98. I would bet he finishes the season higher than that, but not having the stats now can hurt you when it comes to making the All-Star Game.
Despite his lack of power, Guerrero is having a pretty good season. But the lack of power might cost him, despite his name recognition and the fact that he made it last year. Yandy Díaz was the starter last year but both he and the Rays were playing better. Rizzo is just OK this year, but considering it’s a huge bounceback from last year’s awful play and his team is both in the largest market and has the best record in the AL, we can’t count him out.
However, Josh Naylor is having, statistically, the best season of the AL first baggers and he’s playing for one of the best teams, too, so that should help his name recognition even though he hasn’t appeared in an All-Star game previously.
I’m not counting Vinnie out - this is the fanbase that almost got Omar Infante voted into an All-Star Game while simultaneously complaining about how terrible he was. But, barring an extended hot streak, he’d have to be voted in. Last year only one backup first baseman was selected. My best guess is that Naylor and Rizzo make the team in some order.
Potential Royals: Michael Massey
Competitors: Marcus Semien TEX, Jose Altuve HOU
Listen, as poor as Vinnie’s case is, Massey’s is worse. He missed the first month with an injury and while he’s hit well since returning (he has a 112 wRC+ before Wednesday’s action) he simply doesn’t have the league-wide name recognition to overcome missing such a huge chunk of time in his counting stats. Especially not when the top 2 competitors are doing as well as they have been.
Marcus Semien was the starter last year and he’s leading the way in fWAR for second basemen again this season. He is hitting the worst of the three second basemen, but his name recognition is off the charts and the Rangers won the World Series last year, even though they have only played around .500 this year.
All Jose Altuve does is hit. Forever and ever. He missed almost half of last season and was still worth 4.1 fWAR thanks mostly to his bat. At age 34 he has not slowed down at all. He didn’t make the All-Star team last year, largely due to missing the first month of the season, I suspect. But it would be shocking to me if he didn’t make it this year.
Once again, I’ll never count out a Royals player when the fan base is motivated, but I suspect Marcus Semien will be the starter while Altuve will make the team as a reserve. It’s possible there’s room for a second reserve from this position, but there are only five or six reserves from the infield crew and, well, take a look at the rest of the infield.
Potential Royals: Maikel Garcia
Competitors: Isaac Paredes TB, Rafael Devers BOS, José Ramirez CLE, Jordan Westburg BAL
First, I want to remind you all that I predicted a breakout year for Garcia.
We will ignore the fact that, before I called for his breakout year, I suggested the Royals should trade him because I wasn’t sure he was valuable enough as a third baseman.
Alright, so let’s talk about how good he’s been. There was some serious concern about him after a hot start when he had an awful hitless streak during a tough road trip for the Royals during the Royals’ second road trip of the season. Since that stretch, he has slashed .320/.366/.480/.846, good for a 137 wRC+. On the season he has a 104 wRC+, which when added to his baserunning - he’s stolen only five fewer bases than Bobby Witt Jr. and has been caught six fewer times, also known as zero times - and defense, makes him a very good player.
Last year’s starter, Josh Jung, was really, really good in the first four games of the year. 0.6 fWAR in four games good, which would be worth 12 fWAR over a full season if a player could somehow maintain it. Unfortunately for both him and Texas, he’s been hurt ever since and may just be coming back as we hit the All-Star Break. So he’s out.
José Ramirez doesn’t have a particularly good fWAR number at 1.2 fWAR, but he’s leading the American League in RBIs on one of the best teams playing. He also has made the All-Star team five times, including each of the last three years, and regularly has a significant MVP ballot presence.
Jordan Westburg has also been very good this year. Royals fans will remember him as the guy who walked them off in the first game the team played against Baltimore this season. He’s a former high-ranking prospect that FanGraphs projects as a utility infielder, but he’s been hitting like an All-Star this year with a 141 wRC+.
Rafael Devers has been leading Boston for a while and he’s hitting better than ever to start 2024. He didn’t make the All-Star Team last year, but he did the two previous seasons and he still won a Silver Slugger Award.
Isaac Paredes has never made an All-Star team, however, he had a breakout season for the Rays in 2023 and he’s improved significantly upon it this season. The Rays are struggling this year, but not so much that he can’t stand out.
In the end, Garcia’s best chance is also to get voted in. That’s not unusual but Ramirez and Westburg both seem to have a step on him while Devers and Paredes are at least even. There are only so many reserve spots to go around and we haven’t even gotten to the shortstops.
And, actually, we aren’t going to get to the shortstops today, either. That’s already a lot of words about the All-Star Game. Let’s agree to meet back here next week to talk about the shortstops, outfielders, and pitchers.
