The Rays have been making smart moves, but is there luck running out?
The Rays won 99 games last year, but just six of the players in their Opening Day lineup last year are still with the team, and 10 players on the roster this weekend against the Royals weren’t with the big league team last year. A lot of that is due to injuries, the Rays have nearly an entire starting rotation on the Injured List - Zach Eflin, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs. They also traded away ace Tyler Glasnow for prospects and swapped Rookie of the Year contender Luke Raley for infielder José Caballero.
Such roster churn is a trademark for the Rays, and usually the front office hits blackjack. But the moves this year haven’t really panned out so far. The team has been a .500 team much of the year, and has actually overperformed - they have the sixth-worst run differential in baseball.
Kansas City Royals (32-19) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (25-26) at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Royals: 4.84 runs scored/game (7th in MLB), 3.43 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Rays: 4.02 runs scored/game (22nd), 4.80 runs allowed/game (25th)
The Rays have lost four in a row, including a home sweep at the hands of the Red Sox. They have a losing record of 14-15 in the soulless cathedral called Tropicana Field despite the fact that none of the teams they have played there currently have a winning record.
Only four teams have hit fewer home runs than the Rays, and they have the seventh-highest strikeout rate. They swing at a lot of pitches, but are near the bottom in contact rate. Former All-Star Randy Arozarena has cratered offensively this season and is one of the worst qualified hitters in baseball. Yandy Díaz has begun to heat up after a slow start, hitting .325/.388/.494 with three home runs over his last 19 games. Outfielder Josh Lowe left the game on Wednesday with a right side strain and may have to land on the Injured List.
José Caballero has one of the worst walk-to-strikeout ratios in baseball, but he is tied for the second-most steals in baseball with 18. The Rays as a team have the fifth-most steals with 55, but they have been caught the most - 21 times.
Shawn Armstrong will serve as an opener in Friday’s game with Tyler Alexander likely to get the bulk of innings. Armstrong has been an opener three times, and has given up four runs in four innings, allowing opponents to hit .353/.421/.353. Tyler Alexander was perfect over his first seven innings against the Blue Jays in his last start, but gave up three hits and three runs in the eighth. Overall he has a 5.17 ERA with a low strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate of 7.1 and is tied for third in baseball with 10 home runs allowed.
The Rays picked up Aaron Civale from the Guardians last summer and he’s been a disaster so far in his time in Tampa Bay, despite an improved strikeout rate. He has the third-highest home run rate among qualified starters, giving up a long ball in nine of his ten starts. He hasn’t gone more than six innings in a start since April 16 and he’s given up 17 runs in 19 2/3 innings in four starts in May. Civale throws a cutter, sinker, curve, and four-seamer, and his ground ball rate has dropped significantly to 34.8 percent this year.
Taj Bradley was ranked by most publications as a top 50 prospect before last season. He had an unimpressive 5.59 ERA in his rookie season, but with a fantastic strikeout rate. He has a terrific strikeout-to-walk ratio this season, and he had 10 strikeouts to no walks his last time out, but gave up five runs in a 5-0 loss to the Red Sox. Bradley throws a 96 mph four-seamer, but opponents are hitting just .133 against his cutter and his splitter has a 35.5 percent whiff rate.
Rays relievers have a 4.36 ERA, ninth-worst in baseball, and their 4.80 FIP is second-worst. They have the seventh-highest walk rate and the second-highest home run rate. Closer Peter Fairbanks, a former Mizzou Tiger, had struggles early in the year but has given up just two runs over his last nine innings, converting three of four save opportunities. Kansas City native Jason Adam has seen his strikeout rate plummet, but is still getting opponents to hit just .169/.291/.296 against him. Kevin Kelly is inducing groundballs 54.8 percent of the time. Garrett Cleavinger has yet to allow a home run this year and has a reverse split where lefties hit him better than righties.
Matt Quatraro lost 4 out of 7 matchups against his old team last year. The Rays are a smart franchise with some talented players, so there is still plenty of time to turn their season around. But the Royals can capitalize on their opponents while they’re down.
