Former President Trump is headed to the south Bronx on Thursday for a rare rally in the heart of New York City – and in an area where President Biden blew him out of the water in 2020.
The event follows other recent campaign stops in New Jersey and Minnesota, appearing to be executing his sentiments that he can compete in traditionally blue states.
Strategists said the Bronx rally is less about flipping deep blue New York in November and is more about Trump showing his strength by drawing throngs of supporters in an unexpected venue.
“I think having an event in New Jersey, New York, it’s convenient,” said Alex Conant, who has worked on multiple GOP campaigns. “And these are also areas that aren’t used to having Trump rallies, so they can build really big crowds. There might be more Democrats than Republicans, but there’s still a ton of Republicans who are going to build out a massive event.”
Another GOP strategist said it could also be a way to put the Biden campaign on its heels.
“If he generates a lot of enthusiasm at this rally and you get good press coverage, the Biden campaign cannot be happy about that,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist. “It’s to show the Biden campaign is on the defensive.”
Trump will gather supporters in Crotona Park on Thursday evening, where his campaign said the former president will focus on how the Biden administration has put a financial strain on New York families and on the issue of crime.
“The Empire State, a place near to President Trump’s heart, has been decimated by Biden,” campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “President Trump will ease the financial pressures placed on households and re-establish law and order in New York.”
The choice of the Bronx serves multiple purposes. It is a location of convenience given the expectation that Trump would be spending the week in Manhattan for his ongoing hush money trial. The rally was announced several days before the judge sent the jury home until next Tuesday for the Memorial Day holiday.
But it is also a location designed to garner significant buzz for the former president. He will be taking the stage in a place that overwhelmingly votes Democrat, and any large crowd will likely generate media coverage for the former president at a time when his ability to campaign is somewhat limited by his trial.
“He’s gotten creative,” said one Republican strategist. “It also shows you why Trump is an earned media master.”
Trump will likely draw supporters from both New York City and neighboring areas where he is more popular, but he will undoubtedly be entering somewhat hostile territory. President Biden won the state of New York by roughly 2 million votes in 2020, and he carried Bronx County with 84 percent of the vote.
Some Democrats see it as a ploy.
“He's hosting a rally to try to con people and try to fleece them out of every dollar that they have to fund his own legal fees,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who represents part of the Bronx, told reporters. “And by the way, he's doing it in the South Bronx, not to make a point, but because he's got court, and the man practically has the legal version of an ankle bracelet around him, and he can't leave the five boroughs because he always has to be in court.”
While flipping New York red may be a pipe dream, Trump has spoken openly about competing in traditionally Democratic states in November, and his campaign has eyed Minnesota and Virginia in particular as potential targets.
“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump said in an interview with the right-wing outlet Breitbart earlier this year.
The former president held a rally in Wildwood, N.J., a red portion of the state, earlier this month, drawing tens of thousands of people to the event near the boardwalk and declaring he planned to “officially play in the state of New Jersey.”
Trump traveled to Minnesota last week for a GOP dinner, another state he and his campaign have viewed as a potential flip opportunity ever since he came within 2 percentage points of winning it in 2016.
At a donor retreat earlier in May, top Trump campaign officials reportedly showed attendees polling numbers that had Trump tied with Biden in Minnesota and Biden ahead of Trump by just 3 percentage points in Virginia
A Republican presidential candidate has not won Minnesota since 1972. Trump lost the state in 2020 to President Biden by 7 percentage points.
In Virginia, Democrats have carried the state in every presidential election since 2008. Biden beat Trump there in 2020 by 10 percentage points.
But Trump allies and Republican strategists argued that if Biden is running behind Trump in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it could open up the map for the former president to be more aggressive and grow his path to 270 electoral votes.
“Minnesota, Virginia, these are states that if Biden doesn’t improve his standing with his own base they’re going to be in play,” said Conant, who is a Minnesota native.
“If you want to go to Minnesota and try to put it in play, do it in May because in September and October you're likely not going to have the time to stop there,” he added.
