NHL Conference Final predictions

Can we finally break .500 on picks?

It hasn’t been the best prognosticating year for us here — the chalk has been carrying the day. We ended up with just a 2-2 record in the second round predictions, matching the .500 mark of a 4-4 first round. That is to say, can we count on that .500 trend to continue below? Probably. It has been the theme of the playoffs.

Eastern Conference Final: New York Rangers vs. Florida Panthers

Former Penguins involved: Evan Rodrigues [FLA] (3G+3A in 11 games), Dmitry Kulikov [FLA] (0G+0A in 11 games), Magnus Hellberg [FLA] (zero games) Chad Ruhwedel [NYR] (zero games)

The Atlantic and Metropolitan Division champions arrive with plenty of storylines to go around. There’s the Sergei Bobrovsky/Artemi Panarin close friendship turned enemies. There’s NY looking to recapture 1994 magic and the Panthers trying to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final for a second year in a row. Both teams are no strangers to turning the temperatures up and the between game chirping and pandering for calls between Peter Laviolette and Paul Maurice could be almost as entertaining as the action on the ice.

One area that stands out is penalty kills hitting peak levels of performance. The Panthers only allowed one goal to Boston’s power play in the six games of that series and the Panthers were able to score once themselves while shorthanded against the Bruins. That was matched by New York — in the six games of second round against Carolina, NYR gave up two goals while shorthanded and were able to erase it with two goals of their own.

Throw in the easy series against the lowly Capitals and NYR’s PK unit has played to a remarkable total 4-4 score so far in these playoffs. When a team isn’t disadvantaged by being down a player, that’s a huge plus. That could be a challenge for the Panthers, who have the lowest 2024 playoff power play percentage of the remaining four teams (22.0%). Whether or not they can overcome the Rangers in this area should go a long way in determining the eventual winner.

At even strength, this should be a fun one. Selke winner Aleksander Barkov will likely be tasked with slowing Panarin’s line down. Both teams employ a bevy of fast and skilled forwards. Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky “only” has a .916 save% at 5v5 so far, only 11th in the playoffs. Igor Shesterkin has been sharper, ranking fourth in the NHL with a .928% 5v5 save percentage. Bobrovsky’s play and levels can vary sharply but he will have to raise his game to the next level to match the caliber of his countryman in the opposite crease.

Prediction: Rangers in 6. NYR’s win over Carolina was extremely impressive, ending on the high note of erasing a two-goal deficit in the third period of Game 6. Their special teams are truly special and they should have the stronger goaltending. That’s a good recipe this time of year. It would not be a shock to see Florida (the slight series betting favorite at -120) be able to match the Rangers’ level and advance, but unfortunately it looks like NY has the tangibles and that little extra boost of intangibles to move on.

Western Conference Final: Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers

Former Penguins involved: Cody Ceci [EDM] (2G+1A in 12 games), Derrick Pouliot [DAL] (zero games)

The Rangers are known as the special teams team, but it’s really Edmonton who owes a lot to advance to the WCF. The Oilers possess the playoff’s best power play (37.5%) AND penalty kill (91.4%) in the first two rounds.

The Dallas goaltending statistical disadvantage seen above no longer actually exists. Jake Oettinger (who to be more precise has righted his game since the All-Star break) is in top form and with a .941 playoff save% at 5v5 has been the best remaining goalie at stopping pucks this postseason. His early season struggles are now just a minor footnote of what has turned into a tremendous run.

That presents a big challenge for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the boys of Oil country who will have to deal with a huge step up in quality for opponent goaltending after about as easy as could be imagined so far (Cam Talbot+ David Rittich for LA, Arturs Silovs stood tall for as long as he could for VAN).

The differences on the blueline are stark. Dallas’ trade deadline addition of Chris Tanev looks like a master stroke, the defensive-minded player has helped shore up a defensive core that already had plenty of quality in Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell. On the flip side of the coin, Evan Bouchard has had a tremendous playoff but the Oiler blueline with Ceci and Darnell Nurse has had to endure its share of nervous moments and mistakes. Changes in pairs have led to Vincent Desharnais playing 19+ minutes in the last two games and looms as a potential area for the speed of the Dallas forwards to take advantage of Edmonton’s new second pair of Nurse and Desharnais.

Staying out of the penalty box as much as possible will be imperative for Dallas, who have by far the worst remaining PK (69.2%) of the four teams still alive. That area offers a glimmer of hope that Edmonton might be able to out-score their areas of weaknesses by matching it with their top strength.

Prediction: Stars in 6. Everyone is pulling the rope in the same direction for Dallas right now. They are strong all over the ice and lack the obvious weak spots on defense and in goal that stand out in Edmonton. The risk that the Oilers’ offense could take over always exists with the skill they have, but the overall Dallas team looks better and primed to take their step into the Stanley Cup Final.