A NIGEL Farage comeback would be an “extinction level event” for the Tory party, exclusive new polling reveals.
The Brexit chief retaking the reins of Reform would see the right-wing party soar to 16 per cent in the polls overnight.
It would wipe four points of both the Conservatives and Labour ratings – but see the Tories drop to a wipe out level of just 21 per cent.
The new survey from JL Partners will heap pressure on Mr Farage to set out his plans for the future amid increased speculation he will enter the general election fray.
Under current Reform leader Richard Tice, Labour are polling at 45 per cent to the Conservatives 25.
Reform are in fourth behind the Liberal Democrats on just 10 per cent.
But asked how they would vote with Mr Farage in charge of the party, Reform surge to third on 16 per cent.
Labour would drop to 41 per cent to the Conservatives 21.
One in ten of Reform UK’s new support would come from current Tory voters and one in ten from voters currently minded to vote Labour.
Mr Farage would also pick up the support of 14 per cent of those who previously said they would sit this election out and not vote.
Speaking to the Sun, JL Partners director Scarlett Maguire warned this would be a “knock out blow” for Rishi Sunak that would see the Tories possibly sink to just a handful of seats.
The survey also shows immigration rocketing up voters concerned – now in second place behind the NHS by those saying they are minded to vote Tory.
The top issue by far for Reform UK voters is stopping illegal immigration and small boats, with two thirds polled putting it in their top three concerns.
Ms Maguire said: “The Conservatives are set for a serious bruising at the next election.
“But if Nigel Farage came back, it would be a knockout blow.
“This polling shows it really could be an extinction-level event for the Tories.”
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However Mr Farage remained tight-lipped about his plans when the results of the poll were shared with him.
He told The Sun: “The Tories’ misfortunes are all their own making”.
But he agreed it was likely that Labour would also lose votes to Reform.
JL Partners polled a nationally representative sample of 2,002 voters in Great Britain.
The sample was quota-ed and weighted on age, gender, 2019 vote, education, political attention and region to ensure it was representative.
The sample was collected using online panels between the 1st – 2nd May 2024, with a margin of error of 2.2 per cent.
DOWNING St will be “worried” and “upset” by new polling showing a Nigel Farage comeback would damage the Tories’ election prospects, Sun Chief Political Correspondent Jack Elsom said.
On a bitesize special of Never Mind The Ballots, Jack described Mr Farage as “one of the most effective orators of our political age”.
He added that the Honorary President of Reform UK has a “rare knack” of being able to speak to “ordinary voters in a way they understand and appreciate”.
But Jack added that a shock return by Mr Farage would unlikely lead to right wing challenger party Reform bagging any seats.
In its heyday under the leading Brexiteer, UKIP polled around 16 per cent but only managed to win one seat.
Jack said: “They have a massive mountain to climb to show they are an electoral force.”
