'It all depends on what the Sun does in the next couple of days.'
This weekend was the first time in 20 years that displays of the aurora borealis could be seen across the UK so clearly, even visible over London’s light pollution.
Friday night offered the most spectacular display, with Saturday also giving a catch-up for those who missed it.
But what about if you missed the lights over the weekend: is it too late now?
Unfortunately, the answer is probably yes – although the chance is generally still higher than normal, because the sun is in a period of high activity.
This is not only because the massive solar storm that sent charged particles colliding with gases in the Earth’s atmosphere has now died down.
It’s also because the weather conditions are not as favourable, with rain clouds now making it harder to see compared to the clear skies at the weekend.
We asked Professor Jim Wild, space physicist from the University of Lancaster, if there was still a possibility of spotting the lights from our back gardens.
He said that if anyone had been awake around 5.30am this morning, they might have had some luck as there was some activity then.
But only the most diehard light-spotters would have been up early or late enough for that possibility, and even then it would not have been the kind of dazzling displays on view over the weekend.
He said that although activity was now returning to baseline levels, it wouldn’t take much from the Sun to send more towards earth.
‘It all depends on what the Sun does in the next couple of days,’ he told Metro.co.uk.
‘Those amazing displays on Friday night into Saturday morning were triggered by solar activity that launched material from the Sun last Wednesday, and it took a couple of days to cross space and get to us.
‘Over the weekend, a couple more of these clouds of material arrived from the Sun – not quite so big or so powerful, but they did trigger some more display.
‘At the moment that activity is subsiding, but we know there are potentially some more of these clouds of material on the way, and the Sun could emit more again because it is especially active at the moment.
‘So I wouldn’t say no, there’s no chance, but I think Friday and Saturday were the main events.
The general public may be most excited by the pretty photos, but governments are more likely to be concerned about effects on infrastructure when a massive solar storm erupts.
While this weekend’s was the biggest for 20 years, it’s by no means the biggest we know about.
That was the ‘Carrington Event’ in 1859, the most intense geomagnetic storm on record, which was about three or four times larger than this one.
It caused disruption even without society being reliant on electricity, and if something on that level happened now it would interfere with satellite and radio communications, and could introduce electrical currents into power grids, railway lines and pipelines and interfere with those operations.
This week, systems seem to have emerged pretty much unscathed but the need to build resilience is something industries will have been thinking about, Prof Wild said.
‘We’re gliding down in activity and we’d need something to re-energize the system if we were to see those kind of displays again.’
It is hard to predict the exact activity of the Sun, but the good news is that any major solar flares will not cause the aurora to begin immediately, but give a day or two notice.
‘If the sun does something powerful today then that could be with us within 24 to 36 hours,’ Prof Wild said.
If people want to avoid missing out next time it happens, they can sign up for alerts from AuroraWatch UK which has a four tier system from green (nothing likely to be seen) to yellow (may be visible in Scotland and the north only) to amber (photographs likely from anywhere in the UK) and red (visible by eye anywhere in the UK).
Prof Wild said that if people receive an automated alert and want to see if they’re really likely to see anything given weather conditions etc, a simple way is just to to search on social media for northern lights/aurora and their location – as anyone who spots them is likely to want to share them.
If there’s a chance of seeing them, visibility will be best away from sources of light pollution and in the night when skies are dark enough. Don’t forget that cameras will pick up the lights more easily than the naked eye, especially if the shutter is set to a long exposure.
With Instagram flooded with spectacular aurora images, many won’t want to wait another 20 years for a chance to see them from their own homes.
Prof Wild, who has studied the aurora in the far North as part of his research, illustrated just how incredible this weekend’s lights were when he said: ‘I’ve seen displays at high latitude in the Arctic that weren’t as good as what I saw from Lancaster last weekend.’
But don’t get too disheartened if you missed it, as they weren’t the best he’s ever seen, which were so bright they cast a shadow on the ground.
If you had your camera prepared to try get the shot tonight, don’t get your hopes too high but also be on alert in case things change.
A Met Office spokesperson said that even if the sun starts things up again, though, ‘the chance of seeing the Aurora Borealis in the UK is waning.
‘Add into that the fact that there is a lot of cloud over the coming days the chances of seeing the phenomena is unlikely now.’
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
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