Summary: China's Jin-Class Type 094 submarines, part of Beijing's naval modernization efforts, face significant challenges in their role as ballistic missile carriers. Despite being an upgrade from the unreliable Xia-class, the Type 094s are criticized for their detectability due to high noise levels, potentially undermining their strategic deterrence capability. Armed with JL-2 and possibly JL-3 missiles, their range allows for threats to U.S. territories like Hawaii, Guam, and Alaska.
However, doctrinal and technological limitations, alongside command and control issues, question the Type 094's effectiveness in global nuclear deterrence. The upcoming Type 096 aims to address these shortcomings, indicating China's ongoing commitment to enhancing its submarine fleet.
China needs ballistic missile submarines to threaten America with nuclear war in a crisis. However, the Jin-Class Type 094 submarine might not be up to the task due to a host of problems.
Jin-Class Type 094 Submarine Profile - China is rapidly modernizing and expanding its naval capabilities amidst an intensifying arms race with America.
From next-generation bombers and fighter jets to cutting-edge submarines, Beijing is striving to possess superior military forces.
On the submarine front, Western analysts are predicting that China’s new Type 096 ballistic SSBNs will be operational before the end of the decade.
According to a discussion published by the U.S. Naval War College this summer, the upcoming Chinese submarine will be more difficult to keep tabs on.
Although the Type 096 is still in the works, Beijing routinely deploys its older Type 094 missile boats on fully armed nuclear deterrence patrols in the South China Sea.
Designated by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as Jin-class, the Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile was derived back in the 1980s.
China’s previous Xia-class submarine (also known as Type 092) was notoriously unreliable. When it became operational in 1983, it quickly endured a litany of issues including radiation leakage from its onboard nuclear reactor. The Xia was also very noisy, making it very easy for the U.S. and others to detect underwater.
In terms of design, the Jin-class submarines appear very similar to the Soviet Union’s Delta III class boats that were developed one decade prior in the 1970s.
However, China’s counterparts are smaller in size and can carry a smaller number of armaments. Analysts have considered the possibility that Russia’s Rubin Design Bureau contributed to the design phase of the Type 094 vessels, although this speculation has not been confirmed.
The hulls of the first Jin-class submarines were laid down in the early 2000s and commissioned a few years later in 2021. The introduction of the Type 094 coincided with a Type 075 landing helicopter deck and a Type 055 destroyer.
The Type 094 boats can sport a total of 12 JL-2 submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles. These Julang-2 (JL-2) SLBMs are believed to carry a single nuclear warhead each with a range of roughly 9,000 kilometers.
With this range in mind, the JL-2 would not be able to reach the continental U.S. although it could threaten Hawaii, Guam and Alaska if launched from the waters near China.
Last year, several sources reported that some of the Jin-class submarines had been refitted with more sophisticated JL-3 ballistic missiles. These formidable missiles have a longer range of up to 12,000 kilometers and could, therefore, threaten American territory more easily.
Since the first Jin class submarine was introduced, electronics and other key components have advanced significantly. China’s Type 094A boat was commissioned in 2018. Experts believe that only a total of two of these newer variants exist today.
According to Military Today, satellite images released in 2017 and 2018 indicate that Beijing has since launched 2 more ballistic missile submarines, bringing its total up to at least 6. These additional boats are believed to incorporate even more advancements than the Type 094A submarines.
In 2001, the Changzheng 10 Type 094 submarine was officially laid down. One year later, the Changzheng 11 followed suit. In 2004, the Changzheng 18 was laid down. Beijing has never publicly disclosed the exact number of ballistic missile submarines that were built. Additionally, there are no visible hull numbers on the submarines.
The Type 094 boats may be far superior to their predecessors but still suffer from many shortcomings.
Perhaps most notably, the Chinese submarines are much louder than their American and Russian counterparts.
In fact, according to the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, the Jin-class submarines are even noisier than the Soviet-era Delta III SSBN. In the early 2000s, a Chinese researcher revealed that the Jin submarines had an acoustic signature of 120 decibels - comparable to the Los Angeles-class submarine.
Since the Jin-class submarines have to travel further away from the mainland actually to threaten adversarial targets, the Type 094 may really be a paper tiger. Considering the class’ loud noise and easy detection, it would struggle to surpass U.S. submarines in the waters.
Additional details have been provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies: “Doctrinal limitations also inhibit Chinese boomers from regularly performing deterrent patrols with nuclear warheads on board. The Chinese military has long been reluctant to deploy warheads in peacetime, choosing instead to keep them separated from their delivery systems until needed. Chinese military leaders must also wrestle with maintaining safe, secure, and reliable command and control technologies and procedures—a challenging feat even for militaries with decades of experience operating SSBNs.”
Considering the issues surrounding the Type 094 submarines, the Jin class may not be cut out for the true global nuclear deterrence role Beijing would like to purport.
Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin.
Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.
