Series Preview: Well-Rested Mets Head Home to Face Braves

The New York Mets (18-18) entered Wednesday with a chance to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals, but some bad weather in the Midwest caused the game to be postponed to a later date. An additional day of rest means the team has not played since Tuesday night.

To the surprise of many, the Atlanta Braves (22-12) are not at the top of the National League East, sitting two games back of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets took two of three when these two teams met in Atlanta during the second week of April. Carlos Mendoza will hope his team can repeat that feat, this time at home. Here are some notes on the three pitching matchups this weekend.

Friday, May 10, 2024: RHP Charlie Morton (2-0, 3.50 ERA) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (1-3, 5.20 ERA)

Charlie Morton allowed a season-high six runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Miami Marlins on April 14. Since then, the veteran is 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts. Morton continues to defy father time, pitching at an incredible level despite being in his 17th big league season. With Spencer Strider (elbow) out for the season and Max Fried pitching below his normal level, the Braves need strong performances from him more than ever. Morton is 6-6 with a 3.71 ERA in 23 career appearances (22 starts) against the Mets.

Jose Quintana had a respectable 3.48 ERA entering his last start, but it rose all the way up to 5.20 after he allowed eight runs on 10 hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays last Friday. The Mets nearly came back to win that game, but the deficit proved to be too large. Quintana has never relied on striking people out, so the key for him is to create some soft contact against the opposition. His hard-hit rate is at 42.6%, showing a major increase from 32.5% in limited innings last season. Quintana is 3-5 with a 6.55 ERA in nine career appearances against the Braves, so the potential for a bounce back performance could be difficult to realize for the left-hander.

Saturday, May 11, 2024: LHP Max Fried (2-1, 4.23 ERA) vs. RHP Christian Scott (0-0, 1.35 ERA)

Fried has been one of the best left-handed starters in baseball for a number of years, but after missing a good chunk of time last season, he has yet to truly return to form. His numbers are inflated due to giving up eight runs, seven of which were earned, in a start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 6. Fried took the loss last time out, allowing four earned runs, including two home runs, in seven innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend. He will hope to get back into the win column on Saturday, facing a team he is 8-5 against with a 2.65 ERA over 102 career innings.

Christian Scott could not have drawn up a better way to start his big-league career. While it did end up with a no decision on Saturday against the Rays, he showed glimpses of what he could be in the future. Scott managed his way through 6 2/3 innings, surrendering one run on five hits while striking out six. Looking ahead, the Braves’ lineup will provide a much different test to that of the Rays, so how he attacks their offense will be important to watch. Saturday’s game will be Scott’s first appearance at Citi Field.

Sunday, May 12, 2024: RHP Bryce Elder (1-1, 5.28 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (2-2, 2.93 ERA) 

Bryce Elder began the season in Triple-A Gwinnett, which surprised many after the right-hander was an All-Star last year. Injuries opened the door for him to be recalled and he has not yet taken advantage of that opportunity. Elder allowed seven earned runs on seven hits across 3 1/3 innings against the Dodgers last Saturday, a game in which the Braves lost 11-2. Walks have played a major role in his troubles, allowing four in each of his last two starts. Elder is 2-0 with a 5.27 ERA in three career appearances against the Mets.

Luis Severino has been a pleasant surprise in the Mets’ rotation, showcasing some of the form he exhibited in his early years with the New York Yankees. The right-hander has allowed one run or less in four of his seven outings. While he does have a sub 3.00 ERA, he has given up way too many walks. That was the case on Sunday in St. Petersburg, where he allowed a season-high six walks against the Rays. Command issues have led to longer innings, resulting in Severino only being able to throw five or six innings in most starts. He will hope to provide more length moving forward and place less pressure on the bullpen. Severino is 1-1 in two career starts against the Braves.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Michael Harris II (ATL)

The Braves have a handful of guys struggling at the plate, but none are in a bigger slump than Michael Harris II. He has gone hitless in eight of the last nine games, collecting two walks and six strikeouts during that time period. Harris has done nothing but produce since the Braves called him up in May of 2022, but this stretch has been a challenge for him. The only glaring difference in his numbers is that he is pulling the ball way more than he ever has. His pull percentage is 40.2% through 144 plate appearances, way up from 27.9% last season. Harris will look to settle into any sort of offensive rhythm and get back on track at Citi Field this weekend.

Pete Alonso (NYM)

Francisco Lindor’s bat has come around in recent weeks, but as that has happened, Pete Alonso has struggled mightily. He is 3-for-18 over the last five games, with two of those hits coming in one contest. The good news is that performance was in the Mets’ last game on Tuesday night in St. Louis, which included his ninth home run of the season. A big series against a rival could help him rediscover his strong at-bats from the beginning of April. Up to this point, Alonso has slashed .240/.337/.431/.769 with 14 home runs in 78 career games against the Braves.

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