Tim Means and Uros Medic meet Saturday on the UFC on ESPN 55 main card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Means (33-15-1 MMA, 15-12 UFC), who turned 40 in February, snapped the first three-fight skid of his career this past September with a Fight of the Night-winning third-round TKO of Andre Fialho. Despite Means’ reputation as a gunslinger, the bonus was his first since 2015 and just his third overall in 27 UFC fights. Means’ knockout against Fialho was his first finish with his hands since late 2018. … Medic (9-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC), a Dana White’s Contender Series product, returned to welterweight after three UFC fights at lightweight. Medic’s spinning backfist finish of Matthew Semelsberger in July 2023 came after a 14-month layoff. Medic needs a rebound after a submission loss to Myktybek Orolbai in November.
Last event’s results: 4-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2024: 28-29-2
Kicking off the main card on ESPN is a potential welterweight war between Tim Means and Uros Medic.
Although I can understand why many are favoring the younger fighter in this spot, I believe that Means is livelier than the betting spread leads on.
Tim Means, who faces fellow southpaw Uros Medic at #UFCVegas91, is 2-2 against UFC-lefties (W: Salas, Alexandre; L: Fisher, Rodriguez)
His game translates well in all phases against SPs, finding the body & legs. Struggles w/left strikes over the lead shoulder. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/ODV4VA6adE
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 26, 2024
Despite both men being susceptible to the southpaw blindspot that exists over their lead shoulders, Means’ game – which has more layers and depth to it – appears to translate well in southpaw vs. southpaw matchups. Moreover, I believe that Means’ propensity to work the body could pay some serious dividends in this fight.
Uros Medic, who faces fellow southpaw Tim Means at #UFCVegas91, has a limited sample against lefties, standing 0-1 opposite UFC-level SPs (J. Turner)
Rear-handed counters are his common culprit regardless of stance, but bodywork seems to be effective as well. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/ijYJLW6ig8
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 26, 2024
Add in Means’ quiet wrestling and grappling advantages inside of the smaller octagon of the Apex, and I find myself taking another flier on an old dog to get it done.
An abrupt knockout from Medic early wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll officially side with Means to survive the early storm and produce a finish in round 3.
Medic is a moderate -340 favorite, according to FanDuel. That’s the most favored Medic has ever been in his UFC tenure. Conversely, Means has only been as much as his +250 underdog status one other time before in the UFC, when he was a ‘dog against Kevin Holland.
As the main card opener, Means and Medic are expected to make their walk to the octagon shortly after 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. local time in Las Vegas). The fight airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 55.
For more detailed analysis from Dan Tom, check out his weekly show, “The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.”
