Key Bridge collapse will reduce monthly U.S. coal exports by one third: EIA

The U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reduced its forecast for U.S. coal exports this month by about a third following the closure of the Port of Baltimore due to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

As a result of the closure, the EIA reduced its forecast for April coal exports by 33 percent and 20 percent for May. It also cut its overall coal export projections for 2024, which it expected to rise 1 percent from 2023 but is now projected to decrease 6 percent.

The collapse of the bridge on March 26 forced the closure of the port, the second-biggest coal export hub in the U.S. American coal companies have grown increasingly reliant on exports in recent years as U.S. utilities shift to renewables for electricity generation. The plurality of U.S. coal went to India last year, with about 25 million short tons, followed by Japan and the Netherlands, both with just under 10 million, according to the EIA.

The country exported 100 million short tons of coal in 2023, close to a 50-50 mixture of metallurgical coal — the type used in steel production — and steam coal, used for electricity generation. About 28.1 million short tons of those exports, or just under 30 percent, passed through the port of Baltimore. Officials have predicted it will take between 9 and 10 weeks to fully reopen the port, while Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said earlier this week that a third individual shipping channel will be open by the end of this month.

“We expect U.S. coal exports to recover toward the end of the summer or early fall, but there is significant uncertainty based on the timeline for the port reopening and how quickly exporters can adjust to export through alternative ports,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a statement.