The Masters is here, and for golf fans, there might not be a better week on the calendar. When it comes to trying to pin down a winner, it’s actually perhaps easier than we realize. Typically, the best players who play well at Augusta National Golf Club and have done so for many years are […]
The Masters is here, and for golf fans, there might not be a better week on the calendar.
When it comes to trying to pin down a winner, it’s actually perhaps easier than we realize. Typically, the best players who play well at Augusta National Golf Club and have done so for many years are the ones who slip on the green jacket Sunday evening.
As we built our power rankings for this year’s first major, though, it was striking how much can change in just a year. Eight of the 12 players who made our list a year ago don’t show up this year. Luckily for the process, 2023 champion Jon Rahm checked in at No. 3 a year ago.
The year-over-year variance does speak to how volatile a player’s game can be and how quickly things can change. The LIV factor certainly complicates it all, too. Or perhaps these rankings are just bad.
With that endorsement of our own work, here are the 2024 Master power rankings with betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
11. Ludvig Aberg (+3300)
A first-time Masters participant — a debutante as they’re called at the Masters — hasn’t won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. In fact, he’s the only guy to do it. Aberg’s case is simple. He’s a bomber who’s also among the game’s best approach players. The issue: his short game. You need to chip it and putt it at Augusta, and a first-timer’s struggles in that regard are likely to be amplified by the tricky green complexes.
10. Patrick Cantlay (+3500)
It would shock no one if Cantlay, a top-10 player in the world forever, won this tournament. But it would also be kind of surprising. He’s never really sniffed a major win, let alone the Masters, with just two top-10 finishes in a major since the 2019 PGA Championship. But, like, he’s good. It’s tricky.
9. Joaquin Niemann (+2800)
Niemann is a tough nut to crack. He’s one of the hottest players on LIV, but that obviously is difficult to quantify. He has the game to win here, though. He has improved every year (T-16 last year), and the best win of his young career came at the 2022 Genesis Invitational where he went wire-to-wire on a course, Rivieria, that plays a lot like Augusta National.
8. Will Zalatoris (+3500)
He’s kind of the anti-Cantlay. Zalatoris’ game is combustible and hard to predict, but he has been solid in majors. Zalatoris had three top-10 finishes four majors a year ago, and he has top-10 finishes six of the seven majors start he has where didn’t miss the cut or withdraw. His game isn’t in great form right now, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come alive at a course where he has finished second and tied for sixth in two starts.
7. Wyndham Clark (+3500)
If it’s a big-boy tournament, Clark is going to contend. He has three wins, all at signature events or majors (2023 U.S. Open), and he finsihed T2 at The Players last month. His game fits the mold, too, as his lack of accuracy off the tee isn’t as detrimental on these wide-open fairways. If there’s anyone who could win it in their first Masters start and not have it be a huge surprise, it’s Clark.
6. Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
Matsuyama is doing that thing where he just ball-strikes the hell out of the ball, and if he makes just enough putts, he’s in contention. His win at The Genesis started a run of four tournaments in which he’s finished no worse than 12th. He has two straight top-10 finishes, despite losing strokes to the field putting. We know he can roll it well enough to win here, where difficult greens that are tricky for everyone bring a player like Matsuyama into contention.
5. Rory McIlroy (+1000)
Rory is still talented enough to win any golf tournament he enters, but he’s not in great form. He just hasn’t been consistent enough over the last year-plus, especially on approach where the left miss is a major issue. The left miss will kill you at Augusta, especially on the second nine, but you also feel like you can’t rank him too low and risk looking like a fool.
4. Xander Schauffele
For someone so successful, he never feels that close to winning even though he’s always in contention. He’ll probably break through eventually, and it could be at the Masters where he has two top-five finishes in his career. He’s playing well, too, with six top-10 finishes in eight 2024 starts.
3. Brooks Koepka (+2000)
He had a pretty brutal showing at Doral over the weekend where he finished tied for 45th, and he finished 28th at Hong Kong last month. The form isn’t good. But he typically balls out at the majors, of course, where he won the PGA Championship last year after melting down at the Masters where he had a great chance to win. His game is perfectly suited for Augusta, too.
2. Jon Rahm (+1100)
He’s the defending champion, and he can make a claim as the best player in the world every time he grabs a club. But can he do it with a different run-up in the LIV schedule? That’s the biggest question of the week.
1. Scottie Scheffler (+400)
He’s playing better than anyone on the planet, and he has a Masters win to his name already. He is brilliant off the tee, dialed on approach, a wizard around the greens and can typically putt well enough to make those skills really stand up. He’s almost a perfect Augusta player, and it’s no surprise he has the shortest betting odds in 10 years.
