Luka Doncic is making a late MVP push bettors shouldn't completely dismiss yet

This season hasn’t been the easiest for the Dallas Mavericks, who were the eighth seed in the Western Conference as recently as last month. But they persevered as well as any team in the thick of the playoff hunt and appear to be peaking at just the right time.

After a recent stretch of 11 wins in 12 games, the Mavericks are up to fifth place in the West and sit just two games behind the reeling Los Angeles Clippers for fourth place. As is usually the case when Dallas is playing well, Luka Doncic has been the driving force behind that push and his MVP odds are taking off as a result.

In just the last week, Doncic’s odds to win MVP have jumped from +1800 to +500 at BetMGM.

Luka Doncic's odds to win NBA MVP at #BetMGM

+1800: Last week

+550: Now

Luka got a chance to win MVP?pic.twitter.com/vGgx0Nylue

— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 3, 2024

Those odds still trail Nikola Jokic (-650), who has deservedly been the leader for quite some time now. But they are closing on him fast with less than two weeks to go in the season. Whether those odds are worth a sprinkle depends on a bettor’s individual risk tolerance.

The Joker has a massive lead for a reason. He’s having the best season of any player, and the Denver Nuggets currently occupy first place in the West. There isn’t much of an argument against him. If there is a sliver of optimism for Doncic, it’s in the fact his stats aren’t terribly far off from Jokic, and the Mavericks have a real chance to grab a top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, which seemed unfathomable not long ago. That would give Doncic a bump in the area of elevating a team beyond expectations, which was always the basis for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s once thriving MVP chances.

 

That’s not to say Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t or isn’t having a phenomenal individual season, but having the Oklahoma City Thunder competing for No. 1 in the West is what leveled the playing field with Jokic, who’s averaging 26.4 points, 12.3 rebounds and 9.0 assists this season

To that point, even as Doncic also averages a near-triple-double, with a league-best 33.9 points per game, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists, Jokic’s numbers are better per 100 possessions in every category besides points, and his advanced numbers are better too, including superior on-off splits.

Doncic won’t make a real case for MVP on stats alone. His best chance is for the Mavericks to continue finishing the season strong. With the league’s fifth-easiest remaining schedule, they have a great chance to do just that. At that point it’ll just be a matter of whether it was too little too late.