Sullen and southerly
Hello Friends,
The wind went southerly last night and as of 0730 it was 17-26 kts under grey skies. Swell is beginning to build. At 0500 the MHL buoy was detecting 3.2 metres at 12 seconds from the south. The buoy off Port Kembla was seeing 4.8 metres, so the Bureau’s call for swell to peak this afternoon is looking pretty plausible.
As you can see from the pics (taken around 0900), the swell isn’t looking too intimidating yet. No one was in the water at the point, nor along the beach. In fact, the only people I could see playing with natural energy were a few kitesurfers chasing choppy lumps out the back at Longy.
The Bureau tells us the cloud will clear later today, which is nice. But the wind isn’t going away, in fact it’s due to swing SE as the skies clear, so it’s not looking super hopeful for the afternoon session.
It looks as though the swell will peak overnight, but still be pretty solid tomorrow morning when, the Bureau tells us, we can expect light winds and partly cloudy skies. Both the GFS and ECMWF swell models continue to show reasonable south swell energy through Thursday – along with light wind for the early sessions.
Have a great Monday!
Kite surfers chasing the swell at Longy
Weather Situation
A trough is bringing a southerly change to northern NSW waters this morning. Behind this, a slow-moving high pressure system will become the dominant feature in the region through the first half of the new week, with coastal winds gradually shifting northeasterly through Tuesday and Wednesday. Another southerly change may affect southern waters during Thursday. A powerful and hazardous swell is expected to reach the NSW coast on Monday, generated by a deep low passing to the south, and may linger until Wednesday.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Southerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots during the morning. Winds turning southeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the evening.
- Seas
- 2 to 2.5 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres around midday.
- Swell
- Southerly 2.5 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres around midday.
- Weather
- Cloudy.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 5 March
- Winds
- Variable about 10 knots becoming northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
- Seas
- Below 1 metre.
- Swell
- Southerly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 3 metres during the morning.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 6 March
- Winds
- North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
- Seas
- Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
- Swell
- Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
- Weather
- Mostly sunny.