At this point in the Oscars derby, the question has shifted from “Will ‘Oppenheimer’ win?” to “How big will it win?” As we get closer and closer to March 10, an “Oppenheimer” sweep is looking all the more likely.
One category still in play is Best Adapted Screenplay. As of this writing (pun intended), “Oppenheimer” holds a lead in the collective Gold Derby odds. But “Barbie” and its high heels are hot on its heals, and there’s a case to be made for the three films that round out the field: “American Fiction, “Poor Things” and “The Zone of Interest.”
While any of these other four would be worthy, they probably needn’t worry about preparing an acceptance speech. Here are five reasons why “Oppenheimer” will win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay.
1. It will be seen as the most significant achievement in the art of screenwriting.
And that is really what it comes down to. The “Oppenheimer” script from Christopher Nolan is based on the 2005 biography “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin. The book focuses on the career of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the “father of the atomic bomb,” and took 25 years to write. One can only imagine the exhaustive process that it must have been for Nolan to go through the book page by page and and adapt it for the screen. The need for scientific research alone was surely a most daunting task. “Oppenheimer” has been widely praised for both its historical and scientific accuracy. The screenplay also provided the dialogue which resulted in three SAG and Oscar acting nominations (Cillian Murphy for Best Actor, Robert Downey Jr. for Best Supporting Actor and Emily Blunt for Best Supporting Actress), as well as a SAG bid for its ensemble cast. The acting in “Oppenheimer” is born from its dialogue, and those words didn’t just come out of nowhere. The film had to impressively condense decades of Oppenheimer’s life into just 180 minutes, and Nolan didn’t waste a single line in accomplishing that. It’s an achievement in screenwriting that is just too monumental for the academy to ignore.
SEE 2024 Oscar nominations: Full list of contenders in all 23 categories
2. “Oppenheimer” appears to be headed for a landslide victory for Best Picture.
And it’s wide lead there will likely have a coattail effect on the rest of the Oscar ballot. Best Director for Nolan seems all but guaranteed. The Supporting Actor statuette might as well have Downey’s name engraved on it. Best Cinematography, Film Editing, Score and even Sound all sound like done deals. I’m not saying that it will succeed in every one of its 13 bids, but in close contests — we have to give it the edge. An “Oppenheimer” avalanche might bury its Adapted Screenplay challengers.
3. There’s been a strong Picture/Screenplay correlation with the expanded Best Picture field and the preferential ballot.
In the 14 years since the Best Picture category was upgraded to allow for as many as 10 nominees (with 10 now being the rule,) 11 of the Best Picture champs were also recognized for their screenplays (either adapted or original). The exceptions were 2011’s “The Artist,” 2017’s “The Shape of Water” and 2020’s “Nomadland.” I won’t get into the reasons for those anomalies right now — I’ll just state that there were logical explanations. But generally speaking, it seems that the academy realizes that the foundation of any good movie is a good script. So it only makes sense that the Best Picture would also be honored with Best Screenplay (be it Original or Adapted). With “Oppenheimer” being so far ahead in the Best Picture race, it’s hard to see academy members denying it’s superbly penned script.
SEE Oscar nominations: How did your favorite films fare?
4. Voters will have no issue giving Nolan both Director and Screenplay.
I say this because I hear some observers pontificate that the academy will wish to “spread the wealth.” That’s a legitimate theory, and I’ve often presented it myself. But in the past 10 years alone, we’ve witnessed three instances where a victorious Best Director also accepted a Best Screenplay Oscar. Those were Alejandru G. Inarritu for 2014’s “Birdman,” Bong Joon-Ho for 2019’s “Parasite” and the Daniels for 2022’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” The academy clearly has no issue with double (or triple) rewarding. Nolan can easily win everything he’s up for, including Best Adapted Screenplay.
5. When historical films win Best Picture, they usually also win Best Screenplay.
I’ll cite examples from this century. 2001’s “A Beautiful Mind.” 2010’s “The King’s Speech.” 2012’s “Argo.” 2013’s “12 Years a Slave.” 2018’s “Green Book.” Notice the common thread? Sure, traditional period pictures don’t prevail at the Oscars like they used to. But history tells us that when one does, it also takes home an award for screenplay. So the writing is on the wall for Nolan — and the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay for “Oppenheimer” very much in his future.
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