After a gusher of coverage about horse-race polls in which President Joe Biden is losing to Donald Trump, it's worth making note of a nagging asterisk: Trump keeps underperforming his polling in the Republican presidential primary. Here’s a quick breakdown of the first several high-profile GOP contests, comparing Trump’s polling margin over his nearest rival to his margin of victory.
Iowa caucus:
• Final 538 polling average: Trump +34 percentage points (over second place)
• Final election result: Trump +30 (over the second-place finisher)
New Hampshire primary:
• Final 538 polling average: Trump +18
• Final election result: Trump +11
South Carolina primary:
• Final 538 polling average: Trump +28
• Final election result: Trump +20
