Twenty years ago, “Lost in Translation” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” had the write right stuff to win Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay, respectively, at the Oscars. That marked the first time that women won both screenplay categories in the same year — Sofia Coppola penned “Lost in Translation,” while Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens shared the adapted honors with co-writer Peter Jackson. And now two decades later, this could happen again for just the second time, though it’s looking increasingly unlikely.
Just as a pure numbers game, Best Original Screenplay is more likely to go a woman this year as the category features three female screenwriters. Golden Globe and BAFTA champ “Anatomy of a Fall,” written by Justine Triet and her professional and life partner Arthur Harari, is currently in first place in the odds. Celine Song‘s “Past Lives” is in third place, while “May December,” by Samy Burch and her husband Alex Mechanik, is in fifth place. The dudes in the race are David Hemingson (“The Holdovers”), in second, and “Maestro” pair Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, who are in fourth.
The category could’ve boasted a fourth female nominee and third power couple had the academy not punted “Barbie,” written by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, to adapted, where it made the cut. Gerwig is the only female nominee in the lineup, as the others are frontrunner Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction,” in second place), Tony McNamara, “Poor Things,” fourth) and Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest,” fifth). In the wake of the outrage over Gerwig’s Best Director snub, many feel that will lead to a sympathy win in Best Adapted Screenplay for the four-time Oscar nominee. “Barbie” started out Phase 2 in second place, but it quickly dropped to third after “American Fiction’s” surprise BAFTA victory on Sunday.
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It’s hard to gauge how “Barbie” will fare with the industry in the adapted category as it has primarily competed in original at other awards groups this season, including at BAFTA, where it lost to “Anatomy,” as expected. But needless to say, “American Fiction’s” BAFTA win — on its only nomination there while “Barbie” went 0-5 — is not great news for Team Pink. Due to the writers’ strike, the Writers Guild of America Awards won’t take place until April 14, aka after the Oscars, but regardless of the dates, WGA wouldn’t have offered much clarity either because “Barbie” was deemed original by the guild — not to mention, there are, as usual, a number of ineligible scripts.
If “Barbie” somehow does prevail, that would also make it three years in a row of women winning adapted screenplay after Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”) last year and Sian Heder (“CODA”) two years ago. It would bring the total of female winners in the category, solo or as part of a writing team, to 10. That’s the current number of female winners in original screenplay, though it goes up to 14 if you count the defunct Best Original Story category. The last woman to win original screenplay is Emerald Fennell, who triumphed three years ago for “Promising Young Woman.” That year came close double female writing winners, but “Nomadland,” written by Chloe Zhao, lost adapted screenplay to “The Father,” by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller.
With so few female writing champs in the Oscars’ 95-year history, it’s not surprising that it took until the 21st century for women to win both categories in the same year or that it’ll be at least 20 years before that happens again since there’s no guarantee of the drought ending next month. But if even there’s just one female winner this year, that would still be historic as it’d mark an unprecedented four-year streak of a woman taking one of the writing categories. That’s a far cry from the 2010s, which didn’t have a female writing winner at all.
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