by Andrew V. Gougherty, T. Jonathan Davies
Biodiversity appears to strongly suppress pathogens and pests in many plant and animal systems. However, this “dilution effect” is not consistently detected, and when present can vary strikingly in magnitude. Here, we use forest inventory data from over 25,000 plots (>1.1 million sampled trees) to quantify the strength of the dilution effect on dozens of forest pests and clarify why some pests are particularly sensitive to biodiversity. Using Bayesian hierarchical models, we show that pest prevalence is frequently lower in highly diverse forests, but there is considerable variability in the magnitude of this dilution effect among pests. The strength of dilution was not closely associated with host specialization or pest nativity. Instead, pest prevalence was lower in forests where co-occurring tree species were more distantly related to a pest’s preferred hosts. Our analyses indicate that host evolutionary history and forest composition are key to understanding how species diversity may dilute the impacts of tree pests, with important implications for predicting how future biodiversity change may affect the spread and distribution of damaging forest pests.