The National Park Service is expected to release its prediction for peak cherry blossom blooms at D.C.’s Tidal Basin on Thursday, but how accurate are those projections?
“We don’t celebrate too much when right, and we don’t let it get us down too much when we’re wrong,” said Mike Litterst with the National Park Service.
Over the past decade, NPS only nailed the date with its initial prediction once and that was last year. But most of the time they have been pretty close — within a day or two.
“Ten days is about as far out as you can trust the forecast,” said Litterst, explaining how Mother Nature can make for fickle weather in March.
High temperatures can speed the process, and late snows slow the incoming blooms.
Six out of the past nine years the peak bloom arrived early — something to keep in mind as you plan your visit.
The biggest prediction gap in that span was in 2018 when the park service predicted a March 20 peak bloom but a late snow delayed peak bloom until April 5.
When determining its prediction, Litterst said the National Park Service takes a look at near- and long-term forecasts as well as the high and low temperature for the coming days.
“We’re also looking at the historic record, you know, what happened in previous years under similar circumstances,” Litterst said.
The National Park Service also has indicator trees that develop blooms a little bit ahead of the rest of the trees.
