The Boston Red Sox have their share of doubters this season.
It’s not just the local media and national baseball pundits, either. Oddsmakers and projection models are skeptical of Boston’s collective ceiling, as well.
FanDuel Sportsbook had the Red Sox’s playoff odds at +285 as of Monday night, meaning a $100 bet would land you $285 if Boston cracked the MLB postseason this year. The Red Sox’s odds to win the American League East sat at +1400, the worst in the division, and their odds to win the World Series were +5000, tied with the New York Mets in the middle of the pack.
FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 26% chance of making the playoffs, with a projected record of 81-81. Essentially, that would mean more of the same after back-to-back seasons in which Boston went 78-84.
Still, believe it or not, there is a path for the Red Sox to make noise in 2024, however unlikely it might seem after a relatively inactive offseason. And it starts with players already on the roster meeting or exceeding expectations.
So, what are those expectations? Well, we can examine a couple of different projection models to gain a better understanding of where each hitter and pitcher stands going into this season.
First, there’s ZiPS, a projection system developed by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. It uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. And it’s widely considered one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.
Second, there’s Steamer, a projection system developed by Jared Cross, a high school science teacher in Brooklyn, and two of his former students, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom. Like ZiPS, it aims to forecast future performance using a whole bunch of data. More smart-people stuff.
Here’s what each model projects for some key Red Sox players in 2024.
POSITION PLAYERS
RAFAEL DEVERS, 3B
ZiPS: .280/.351/.517, 33 HR, 107 RBI, 128 wRC+, 3.9 WAR
Steamer: .286/.360/.534, 36 HR, 103 RBI, 135 wRC+, 4.8 WAR
TRISTON CASAS, 1B
ZiPS: .264/.367/.479, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 127 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
Steamer: .260/.371/.489, 29 HR, 89 RBI, 130 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
TREVOR STORY, SS
ZiPS: .246/.314/.441, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 99 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
Steamer: .234/.305/.407, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 88 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
VAUGHN GRISSOM, 2B
ZiPS: .284/.352/.419, 10 HR, 67 RBI, 108 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
Steamer: .285/.354/.425, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 110 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
MASATAKA YOSHIDA, DH/OF
ZiPS: .295/.356/.457, 16 HR, 74 RBI, 117 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
Steamer: .292/.362/.462, 17 HR, 74 RBI, 120 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
TYLER O’NEILL, OF
ZiPS: .268/.344/.482, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 120 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
Steamer: .248/.327/.445, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 106 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
JARREN DURAN, OF
ZiPS: .255/.313/.424, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 95 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
Steamer: .258/.323/.423, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 98 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
CEDDANNE RAFAELA, OF
ZiPS: .261/.300/.426, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 91 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
Steamer: .254/.296/.418, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 87 wRC+, 0.4 WAR
WILYER ABREU, OF
ZiPS: .246/.338/.408, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 101 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
Steamer: .245/.344/.416, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 105 wRC+, 1.1 WAR
CONNOR WONG, C
ZiPS: .249/.296/.416, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 88 wRC+, 1.0 WAR
Steamer: .236/.290/.395, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 80 wRC+, 0.1 WAR
There really isn’t anything eye-opening about the above projections, for better or worse. No out-on-a-limb prediction. No major discrepancy between the models, aside from Rafaela, whom Steamer projects to play in only 41 games (177 plate appearances) with Boston this season. No reason to feel any more optimistic or pessimistic — depending on where you stand — about Boston’s chances of competing in the AL East.
Devers figures to be the Red Sox’s best player. No surprise there. And Casas could solidify himself as Boston’s second-best offensive threat in 2024.
The projection models also are high on Grissom, whom the Red Sox acquired from the Atlanta Braves in this offseason’s Chris Sale trade, despite the 23-year-old having just 64 games (236 plate appearances) of MLB experience.
PITCHERS
LUCAS GIOLITO, RHP
ZiPS: 29 G (29 starts), 161 2/3 IP, 10-10 record, 4.51 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 2.5 WAR
Steamer: 31 G (31 starts), 180 2/3 IP, 10-11 record, 4.61 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 2.3 WAR
BRAYAN BELLO, RHP
ZiPS: 28 G (27 starts), 147 1/3 IP, 11-11 record, 4.28 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 2.3 WAR
Steamer: 29 G (29 starts), 169 1/3 IP, 10-10 record, 4.30 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 2.5 WAR
NICK PIVETTA, RHP
ZiPS: 32 G (20 starts), 132 2/3 IP, 8-9 record, 4.54 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 1.3 WAR
Steamer: 34 G (28 starts), 161 1/3 IP, 10-10 record, 4.47 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.9 WAR
KUTTER CRAWFORD, RHP
ZiPS: 26 G (19 starts), 106 1/3 IP, 6-6 record, 4.49 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.6 WAR
Steamer: 43 G (26 starts), 154 1/3 IP, 9-10 record, 4.66 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 1.7 WAR
GARRETT WHITLOCK, RHP
ZiPS: 30 G (12 starts), 89 1/3 IP, 6-4 record, 3.73 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.8 WAR
Steamer: 71 G (3 starts), 85 2/3 IP, 5-4 record, 3.90 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 0.9 WAR
TANNER HOUCK, RHP
ZiPS: 25 G (21 starts), 103 1/3 IP, 7-7 record, 4.62 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.2 WAR
Steamer: 44 G (23 starts), 143 1/3 IP, 9-9 record, 4.26 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.8 WAR
JOSH WINCKOWSKI, RHP
ZiPS: 43 G (12 starts), 99 IP, 6-5 record, 4.36 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.2 WAR
Steamer: 69 G (2 starts), 76 IP, 4-4 record, 4.17 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 0.5 WAR
KENLEY JANSEN, RHP
ZiPS: 49 G, 45 1/3 IP, 4-3 record, 32 saves, 4.17 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 0.3 WAR
Steamer: 64 G, 64 IP, 3-3 record, 32 saves, 4.14 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 0.5 WAR
Again, nothing too wild here. Giolito, Bello, Pivetta and Crawford have an inside track on rotation spots this spring, leaving Whitlock, Houck and Winckowski to compete for the No. 5 role. The reality, of course, is the rotation likely will fluctuate throughout the course of a 162-game season, but both ZiPS and Steamer see Houck pitching primarily in a starting role.
