ALBANY, New York — Democratic state lawmakers in New York are expected to reject a House map proposed by a bipartisan commission and back district lines they are drawing themselves, three people familiar with the discussions said Monday.
The Democratic-drawn map under consideration is not expected to be dramatically different from ones released by the commission two weeks ago, according to the officials who were granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions. But the Legislature’s likely decision to embrace its own map could fuel a Republican-backed legal challenge to the new district lines.
The drama over redistricting in New York is heightened by the stakes for both parties. New York is home to a half dozen swing seats that could determine control of the narrowly divided House next year.
Legislators are considering a new map that would make changes to House lines on Long Island and the Hudson Valley. New York CIty-based House seats would not change significantly.
Drawing new House lines was triggered last year when the state’s top court determined the current map was only meant to be in place for a two-year election cycle.
Republicans, who made gains in battleground House districts in the New York City suburbs in 2022, have been generally supportive of the map proposed by the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission, a panel of Republicans and Democrats appointed by state lawmakers.
The commission’s proposed House map made relatively small changes. But Democrats, who are pressing to gain control of the House, have panned the commission’s proposal.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ office blasted the commission’s work and encouraged state lawmakers to scrutinize the boundaries.
Privately, Democrats in the Legislature have been split over how to proceed. Some lawmakers have acknowledged the impact of approving the map with some telling their colleagues “democracy is on the line” according to one person in the negotiations.
Former Rep. John Faso, who has spearheaded the GOP’s legal efforts on redistricting in recent years, said in an interview Monday he doesn’t want to “speculate on anything until I was able to see an entire map.”
But he said: “Based on their track record, I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in what they would be doing. But hope springs eternal.”
The commission’s plan would have provided a boost to Democrats in the seat held by Republican Brandon Williams. Both Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan and Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro would have also had modest gains to their reelection odds.
The current thinking is that lawmakers will stick to the confines of 2012 legislation that says districts they draw can’t vary by more than 2 percent from the ones in the commission’s plans. So at least 761,000 people in a 777,000-person district as drawn by the commission would need to be the same in the amended map passed by the Legislature.
That means there can’t be many dramatic overhauls from the maps drawn by the commission — but there will still be some changes.
State lawmakers are working on a tight timeline.
The Legislature could vote to reject the commission-drawn map as soon as Monday. The Democratic-controlled Legislature would then introduce their own House map, which could be approved this week.
Gov. Kathy Hochul has publicly insisted she is not involved in the internal redistricting discussions and said last week she would not put her “thumb on the scale” to influence the outcome.
Members are also likely to tweak the rules for petitioning for ballot access this year — congressional hopefuls are due to start collecting signatures on Tuesday.
The exact changes are still “fluid,” one lawmaker said.
The question of ballot access will be discussed in both houses’ closed-door Democratic conference meetings, which started a little after noon on Monday.
Another topic that will be discussed is a bill to limit where Republican court cases can be brought.
A bill from Sen. Zellnor Myrie and Assemblymember William Magnarelli that had begun to move earlier this session would have said that challenges can only be brought in Albany County — a response to the GOP bringing their 2022 suit in Steuben County.
But lawmakers, particularly in the Assembly, never fully bought into a proposal that narrow.
Myrie and Magnarelli amended their bill on Friday to say that redistricting challenges can be brought in only Albany, Manhattan, Westchester or Erie counties. That updated measure could receive a vote on Monday.
