Perhaps the biggest question: Can anyone catch Red Bull?
In the buildup to the 2023 Formula 1 season many viewed the upcoming campaign as perhaps a transformative one for the sport. Last year’s schedule contained 24 races, the most in the history of F1, as well as three races in the United States, culminating in the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix.
However, two of those races came off the calendar. First was the Chinese Grand Prix, which was canceled yet again due to COVID-19. Then there was the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, which was called off after severe flooding in the region.
Both races are back on the calendar for this year, meaning that once again a new F1 season beckons, one that could truly be transformative for the sport. But that transformation goes beyond the 24 scheduled races, and to the drivers on the grid. For the first time in F1 history the 20 drivers that will start this season are the same 20 drivers that ended the previous campaign.
That is likely going to change over the course of the next few months. The news that Lewis Hamilton is headed to Ferrari for the 2025 campaign will set a wild driver transfer market into motion over these next few months. Over half of the grid — 13 drivers to be exact — are set to see their contracts run out at the end of 2024. Between that and Hamilton’s shock move to Ferrari, the grid will look a lot different come 2025.
Which means starting this week, a lot of drivers are going to truly be driving to survive.
It all gets started this weekend with the Bahrain Grand Prix. While the driver transfer market is a storyline that will last the entire season, here are some other storylines to watch this week.
As we enter into the 2024 F1 season one of the main questions around the sport is whether any team, or teams, have closed the gap to Red Bull.
However, last year’s Constructors’ Champions face some questions of their own.
Mainly, the ongoing internal investigation into Team Principal Christian Horner.
As reported earlier this off-season, Horner is facing an internal investigation into allegations of “inappropriate” behavior by the Red Bull boss. While there has been much speculation over the nature of those allegations, and Horner has consistently denied any wrongdoing, Horner met with the external counsel retained to conduct the investigation weeks ago for a day-long interview.
The investigation took a new twist over the weekend when it surfaced that Ford CEO Jim Farley had written to the team late last week, expressing his “frustration” at the pace of the investigation, as well as a lack of updates from the team. In the letter, a copy of which was obtained by the Associated Press, the Ford CEO outlined the company’s “non-negotiable” values and blasted the team for a lack of updates. Ford is becoming “increasingly frustrated, however, by the lack of resolution or clear indication from you about when you anticipate a fair and just resolution of this matter,” said Farley in the letter according to the Associated Press. “We are likewise frustrated by the lack of full transparency surrounding this matter with us, your corporate partners, and look forward to receiving a complete account of all findings.”
Why does this put added pressure on the team and the investigation? Ford is set to become Red Bull’s engine partner for the 2026 season.
The manufacturer is not the only party seeking a swift resolution to this matter. Formula One Management (FOM), the sport’s commercial rights holders, also expressed a desire to see a quick conclusion to the investigation. In a statement released earlier this month, FOM expressed both their desire for a full and fair process, but also a quick resolution. “We hope the matter will be clarified at the earliest opportunity, after a fair and thorough process. We will not comment further at this time,” said FOM’s statement.
Whether that investigation is indeed brought to a conclusion this week or lingers beyond the Bahrain Grand Prix, remains to be seen.
Last season was one of turmoil and transition for Alpine. Management moves, the addition of new owners, and a struggling power unit saw the team stuck in the middle of the grid. They were good enough that a challenge from behind was not in the cards, but a deficient power unit left them unable to close the gap to teams ahead of them.
However, where do they truly stand heading into 2024?
On the one hand, you can find signs of progress when comparing the A524 to its predecessor, last season’s A523. Both Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly posted quicker times during last week’s pre-season testing than they did a year ago, and both drivers viewed the three days of testing for Alpine as “productive.” Ocon even went a step further, calling the team’s testing session as “probably one of the strongest during my time at the team.”
Yet, there are some worrying signs as the season looms. Team Principal Bruno Famin admitted that the start of the year will be “challenging” for the team, stating in Alpine’s post-testing media report that “[w]e know where we stand. We are expecting a challenging start to the year as we continue to learn more and more about our A524 to develop it across the season.”
For his part, Gasly conceded that this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix will not be “easy.”
“It’s not going to be an easy first race,” said Gasly to Sky Sports F1, in Bahrain after testing. “We’re not going to start from where we would have liked. But at the same time, we’ve got to give ourselves some time to understand that new car concept that we have.”
Ultimately, two things might be true. First, the A524 is an improvement on the A523. Second, F1 is a relative sport. Sure, the team might have taken a step forward with their challenger, in comparison to where they were a year ago. But remember where they were last season. They were facing a power unit deficiency that led them to appeal to the FIA for a lift on the power unit freeze, noting that by their own analysis, they were down around 15 bhp to the rest of the grid. That request was denied, as they languished in the middle of the field.
So, while they might have improved over last year, how much of an improvement did they make? And will that improvement be enough to keep pace with the rest of the field, and the improvements the other teams made over the winter?
We’ll know more in a few days, but taking Alpine at their word, it could be a slow start to their season.
In the search for “Team Two” behind Red Bull, many minds settled on Ferrari coming out of pre-season testing.
With good reason.
After all, both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. led different days of testing. Leclerc topped the timing charts on the third and final day of testing, and the lap that Sainz delivered on Thursday ended up the fastest lap of the entire week:
https://twitter.com/pirellisport/status/1761084657909563861
Sure, the standard caveats about testing apply, as well as the context that both laps came on the soft C4 compound, which will be unavailable later this week when the Bahrain Grand Prix gets underway. But these are good signs for Ferrari and their 2024 challenger, the SF-24.
Some even better signs? First, consider what we have seen with their race pace. A season ago Ferrari struggled with tire degradation, and the one-lap pace they often showed on Saturdays would elude them on Sundays. Both Sainz and Leclerc put together some long runs later in the week, and the SF-24 seemed more consistent over those stints, without severe degradation. Take this look at a long run from Sainz on the hard compound from Thursday, courtesy of F1-Tempo, which you can see in the upper right in the below graphic:
This stint on the hard C1 compound showed times consistently in the 1:35 range. The first timed lap on the C1 — Lap 65 — came in at 1:35.586, while almost 20 laps later, on Lap 83, Sainz clocked in at 1:35.642.
Second, consider what the drivers said following the testing sessions. ‘The car is reacting the way that we wanted it to, but it is still difficult to assess its level of competitiveness right now. The feeling is better than the base we started from last year. Now, it’s full focus on the race and I can’t wait to be back on track next week,” said Leclerc on Friday.
“The car seems to be in a decent place and I’m proud of the work that the team has done to complete such a solid test [program],” added Sainz.
Even Team Principal Frederic Vasseur sounded upbeat on Friday.
“Our first goal was to see if the SF-24 performed predictably, not being overly sensitive to variations in the external conditions and that it was easy to drive. From what Charles and Carlos have said and looking at the consistency of their performance over a long run, it seems we were successful on this front. It’s very important to have the car behave like this as it means the driver can quickly get an understanding of its characteristics and then get the most out of it,” said Vasseur.
“But this is just a test session and now we simply have to wait exactly one week when we will all be back on track together for the first qualifying session of the season. However, I feel I can say that, looking just at our own performance, we have got off on the right foot. I expect several top teams to all be at a very similar level and I can’t wait to see exactly how our package compares to that of our competitors.”
There truly are some reasons to believe that Ferrari is Team Two behind Red Bull. From the testing times, to the telemetry data, and down to their own words.
This week, however, we’ll learn if they truly are Team Two.
A major storyline coming out of pre-season testing a year ago — aside from the strength of the AMR23, as we will discuss in a minute — was the struggles at McLaren with the MCL60. The team completed testing and immediately began discussing the the upgrades they would need to bring to improve their challenger.
Those upgrades took some time, but they eventually paid off. In a very big way. McLaren pulled themselves up from the bottom of the table, surging past both Alpine and Aston Martin, to finish fourth in the Constructors’ Championship.
The vibes are much different at McLaren as the 2024 season dawns. The team is much more confident about the MCL38, and while there were some slight hiccups during testing, they are in a much better place heading into this year than they were at this time last season.
“Over the last two seasons, winter testing has been inconsistent with several reliability issues, and we didn’t feel we approached the first race very prepared. This year the situation is much improved, we approached pre-season testing more prepared and this confirms the positive journey of the team,” said Team Principal Andrea Stella at the conclusion of testing.
Despite starting on the back foot a season ago, the team was able to rocket up the standings to finish fourth. If they truly are in a better place out of the gate this year, how much higher can they climb?
After the 2022 F1 season, which saw Mercedes struggle with the W13 starting with pre-season testing and finish third in the Constructors’ Championship, Team Principal Toto Wolff sat down for a discussion with Tom Clarkson on the Beyond the Grid podcast.
And admitted that the team simply got the physics wrong with the W13.
That led to some mid-season adjustments with the W14 during the 2023 campaign, most notably a move away from the “zeropod” configuration the team used with the W13. It was enough for the team to hold off Ferrari and finish second in the Constructors’, but not enough to catch Red Bull.
Now, the team enters 2023 with the W15, which does not have design elements as radical as the W13’s zeropod configurations, there are certainly some changes to highlight. In an effort to tame the struggles with the rear end the team has endured the past few seasons, the rear suspension has been converted from a pull-rod layout to push-rod design. The team has also moved the cockpit further back on the car, which is also expected to aid in the rear-end stability.
Then there is the front wing to the W15, which has certainly been a point of discussion around the paddock since it was introduced in Bahrain. Under F1’s technical regulations the front wing flaps must attach to the nose, but Mercedes has tweaked the top section, with a cutaway design that allows for more airflow through the wing:
You can see that element on the right side of the screen (the left side of Hamilton’s W15).
The FIA has already signed off on the legality of the design, but many have wondered if it goes against the spirit of the rules. The current set of F1 Technical Regulations, implemented in 2022, looked to curb turbulent air around the cars in an effort to allow for closer, and perhaps more exciting, racing.
However, many have pointed out that the design of the W15’s front wing, while legal, could work to create turbulent air around the car, undermining the aim of the Technical Regulations.
None of that will matter to Mercedes if, indeed, they have gotten the physics right.
A year ago the F1 grid finished up pre-season testing and it was Aston Martin who emerged as the surprise package. The AMR23 was one of the fastest cars on the grid during testing a year ago, and the result was a podium for Fernando Alonso in the opening race, and a top-ten finish from Lance Stroll. Regarding Stroll, he somehow overcame a pair of broken wrists suffered in training in the weeks before testing to put his AMR23 into the points.
Can VCARB match that in the coming days?
Perhaps not, but VCARB certainly caught the eyes of many during pre-season testing. Both Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda put together some strong runs over the week, and Tsunoda ended up with the seventh-fastest lap of testing, albeit on the soft C4 compound.
So while VCARB might not deliver a podium this weekend, there are reasons to believe they could make some noise as the season gets underway.
This, ultimately, seems to be the biggest question facing the grid as the season gets underway.
Can anyone catch Red Bull?
Over the three days of testing in Bahrain, “ominous” seemed to be the word dominating coverage on F1TV. There was Verstappen out of the gate, topping the timing sheets on the first day of testing. There was the conclusion to the third day of testing, which saw Verstappen sitting in P4, but with some ominous context:
Los mejores tiempos de hoy con compuesto y hora.
— Albert Fabrega (@AlbertFabrega) February 23, 2024
Today's Best lap times with compounds and day time.#F1Testing pic.twitter.com/TvyVzm2tpe
The three drivers ahead of him, as well as the two drivers behind him, posted their laps on the softer C4 compound. Verstappen posted his on the C3.
The C4 compound is not available for the Bahrain Grand Prix. The C3 is.
Finally, there were Verstappen’s comments, as well as a worrying smile to the rest of the field:
Max Verstappen after testing: "The car does everything I want."
— RBR Daily (@RBR_Daily) February 23, 2024
That smile says everything.
[@KemalSengulll] pic.twitter.com/yoBiQN8zPI
Verstappen certainly seems in strong form heading into the season-opening race, and so too does his teammate. Sergio Pérez even posted a faster time than Verstappen on the C3 compound, a time that Pérez put down on Thursday during the second day of pre-season testing.
A year ago Red Bull came within one race of sweeping the season, as Sainz pulled out a win in the Singapore Grand Prix. Other than that race, Red Bull won every single grand prix during the 2023 campaign.
While every team has seemingly made some improvements, the Bulls are not sitting still. So the question remains: Can anyone really catch them?
