Lightning fast Chandler Simpson slides into the top-15.
Chandler Simpson, OF
A | .285/.358/.333 (.691 OPS, 103 wRC+) 397 PA, 0 HR, 81 SB
A+ | .326/.429/.393 (.822 OPS, 135 wRC+) 106 PA, 0 HR, 13 SB
Yes, you read that right. 94 steals, it’s 80 grade speed. Back in 2021, he also set the record wood bat Northwoods League record with 55 bags in 51 games as a second baseman. The Rays then drafted him in the Comp-B round and moved him to the outfield, where his elite speed might offer promise in center field. His slap happy approach at the plate combined with a lack of K’s give his hitting better projection than might be expected from an otherwise zero-power profile. Since the start of the 2022 season, Simpson has the 5th lowest whiff% in the minor leagues, resulting in 54 walks to his 44 strikeouts in 2023.
Chandler Simpson’s legend launched in full force last year with his 94 stolen bases, and I’m sure he has sights on making it 100 in 2024. To learn more about his unique motivation, read below, where Simpson was recently profiled for MLB.com:
They're both 23, they're both from Atlanta and they both stole 94 bases last year in the Minors.
— Matt Monagan (@MattMonagan) February 20, 2024
How two friends, Chandler Simpson and Victor Scott II, trained to become so fast and are making the stolen base cool again.https://t.co/T1KLhxG91D
This next round of voting adds reliever Colby White, and officially drops Uwasawa from consideration after Marc Topkin confirmed the Rays only have him under contract for 2024, meaning he will be an XX(B) free agent after the season ends. Thanks Marc!
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Mason Auer, OF
AA | .205/.292/.348 (.640, 72 wRC+) 511 PA, 11 HR, 47 SB
Auer is the textbook case of why you usually wait until a player reaches Double-A to evaluate their hit tool with any level of certainty. After boasting wRC+ in the 130’s across Class and High-A last season, the Rays aggressively moved the 2021 year old 5th rounder up yet again, and the results were uninspiring at the plate. Baseball America reports Auer tried changing his swing mid-season, so we’ll see how that plays out on offense. Notably, they otherwise write, “Defensively, Auer is a big league-ready, plus-plus center fielder with a plus-plus arm.“ Big praise for a 22-year old.
Brailer Guerrero, OF
DSL | .261/.379/.391 (.770 OPS, 110 wRC+) 29 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB
Tampa Bay paid $3.7 million to land this prospect in January 2023, and just 7 games into his career he needed shoulder surgery. The logline on Guerrero is an exit velocity in the 110’s despite being just 17 years old, but he’s not just free swinging. There appears to be a solid approach at the plate. He’s already listed at 6’1” and 215 lbs, so there’s some concern his longterm future is at first base, but until then he has the arm to pile up outfield assists from a corner, assuming he returns to playing ball right as rain.
Tre’ Morgan, 1B
Rk-A | .396/.482/.542 (1.024 OPS, 182 wRC+ in A) 56 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB
Three-year LSU first baseman Morgan was taken by the Rays in the third round of 2023, marking what looks like a strong draft class on offense for Tampa Bay. He’s a strong defender at first baseman who can hit and hit consistently, even if it’s without commanding power thus far. If his swing follows his physical maturity, he could be show 15 HR pop in an outfield role, but following his current trajectory as a slap hitting 1B with an elite glove, it sure sounds like a Rays first baseman.
Adrian Santana, SS
Rk | .205/.340/.256 (.597 OPS, 73 wRC+) 47 PA, 0 HR, 3 SB
Don’t let the stats above fool you, even though his bat will likely lag behind the rest of his game throughout his development. The (currently) switch-hitting Santana is a high school 2023 draft pick that was given 10 games in the Complex League to get a taste of professional life, and should slot into SS for Class-A in 2024, where his glove and speed are expected to draw rave reviews. Baseball Prospectus ranked Santana sixth in the system for his “double plus” defense, projecting him as an above average regular at short.
Ian Seymour, LHP
Rk | 1.35 ERA, 6.2 IP (4 GS) 11 K, 4 BB
A | 1.64 ERA, 22.0 IP (6 GS) 22 K, 5 BB
A+ | 2.08 ERA, 8.2 IP (2 GS) 9 K, 5 BB
AA | 0.00 ERA, 4.2 IP (1 GS) 4 K, 2 BB
Seymour returned from Tommy John surgery on June 29, and got a slow start with a Complex and Low-A placement at couple-inning stints, but the Rays strategy proved successful. He was able to string together 13 starts across four levels, and locked it down each step of the way. If you remove his injured 2022, Seymour is has a career 1.76 ERA. Like fellow org southpaw Mason Montgomery, he’s a deception-lefty with a violent arm action, but unlike Montgomery he trades the plus slider for a plus change up with 10 mph separation. The over the top delivery has an awful head jerk (video), and accordingly gives the traditional mind a reliever projection, but if it works it works?
Jose Urbina, RHP
Rk | 5.32 ERA, 23.2 IP (11 G, 8 GS) 21 K, 12 BB
A seventeen-year old out of Venezuela nearing 98 mph with his fastball, Urbina was signed for $210k and moved to the US without much pomp and circumstance despite skipping the DSL. His bulked up shoulders belong more of a swimmer than a pitcher, but it’s a good body. The delivery has hints of high effort red flags, but that’s to be expected for his age and velocity. Despite his youth, the fastball should play at every level. His best pitch, the breaking ball, shows major league potential in any part of the zone, and he’s shown feel for a change. If he were a high schooler, you might not blush if Urbina was considered a first round talent. (video)
Colby White, RHP
Rk | 2 ER, 10.1 IP | (11 G) 12 SO, 11 BB
A+ | 2 ER, 5.0 IP (5 G) 4 K, 2 BB
AA | 0 ER, 6.2 IP (8 G) 8 K, 4 BB
Relief-only prospect White returned from Tommy John surgery (due to an elbow fracture at the ligament) mid-way through 2023 after missing all of the previous season, and in total threw 22.0 IP with a 1.64 ERA across three levels. His potential as a high-leverage reliever is sky high, so much so that Tampa Bay added him to the 40-man roster last off-season to ensure he was not poached, despite being unable to pitch at the time. His game prior to the surgery was a 70-grade rising fastball and an above average power slider, but Marc Topkin reports he now boasts two breaking balls that Kyle Snyder calls, “better off-speed pitches than he’s ever featured before.”
Cole Wilcox, RHP
AA | 5.23 ERA, 106.2 IP (25 GS) 21.8% K, 9.7% BB
Wilcox’s first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2021 was muted, with his strikeouts lacking the expected mid-30’s rate. Perhaps that’s because his previous high-octane fastball that earned first round money from the Padres, before they sent him to the Rays in the Snell trade, barely scratches 94 these days. Good pitchers adjust, and the new version of Wilcox was working on a groundballer’s sinker/slider approach in 2023. He’s got a starter’s frame and the breaking ball plays, but it’s an open question as to whether it’s still a major league profile or just a projection of his pedigree.
