A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights finds independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema disproportionately taking votes from Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in a hypothetical general election in Arizona even as he still maintains a lead on far-right conspiracy theorist Kari Lake. But that three-way race is looking increasingly unlikely, because the incumbent is running out of time to decide if she even wants to seek reelection.
In the survey from NPI, which sometimes does work for conservative groups but tells us that this survey was not conducted for a client, Gallego bests Lake 47-37 when theirs are the only two names presented to respondents, with 16% undecided.
But the congressman's edge over Lake falls to 34-31 when Sinema, who takes third with 23%, is provided as an option; the remaining 12% of respondents remain uncommitted.
NPI also took a look at the July 30 GOP primary and shows Lake, who was the party's 2022 nominee for governor, beating Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb 54-21. (Gallego faces minimal opposition for the Democratic nod.)
