Barbie may not get to party at the Oscars. But might she dance the night away at SAG?
I know, this sounds like a prediction that only the dreamy Ken would dream up. (And he’s just Ken.)
So I’ll just lay it all out for you. Here are a half dozen reasons why Margot Robbie in “Barbie” could pull off a Best Actress jaw-dropper at the upcoming SAG Awards.
1. She’s Barbie in “Barbie.”
It was the most talked about motion picture of the year. A worldwide event. A global phenomenon. Box office receipts approaching $1.5 billion. We can’t underestimate the influence that “Barbie” had on social discourse in 2023. And Robbie herself was Barbie — the face and force of the film. She wasn’t just everything. She was EVERYWHERE. The unparalleled impact and influence of “Barbie” alone puts Robbie at play for the SAG trophy.
2. SAG voters will want to reward “Barbie” somewhere.
It scored an impressive four noms at SAG, tying it with “Oppenheimer,” the Gold Derby odds-on favorite for best film cast. “Barbie” may have a tough time dislodging the heavier half of “Barbenheimer” in that top category. Ryan Gosling as Ken has little chance of beaching off Robert Downey Jr. in “Oppenheimer” for the title of Best Supporting Actor. (Let’s face it – no one is beaching off Downey this year.) And as for “Barbie” knocking out the latest “Guardians of the Galaxy,” “Indiana Jones,” “John Wick” and “Mission Impossible” installments for Best Stunt Ensemble … well, that may prove to be mission impossible. So where else can SAG members turn to honor “Barbie?” The answer is looking at herself right in the mirror: Barbie – as in Robbie.
SEE 2024 Oscar nominations: Full list of contenders in all 23 categories
3. Robbie has been on a SAG hot streak.
Her two bids for “Barbie” put her current SAG Awards nominations tally at eight. She impressively scored individual bids three years in a row as Best Actress for 2017’s “I, Tonya,” Best Supporting Actress for 2018’s “Mary Queen of Scots” and Best Supporting Actress again for 2019’s “Bombshell.” “Bombshell” and that same year’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” also earned her noms as part of best film casts. She would compete again for the group prize for her work in 2022’s “Babylon.” It’s clear that Robbie is hugely popular with the SAG society. She has yet to be rewarded. “Barbie” could finally do the trick.
4. Outrage over her Oscar snub will fuel plenty of votes in her favor.
When Robbie was left out of Oscar’s Best Actress lineup, it seemed like we were on the verge on some kind of academy insurrection. People seemed beyond furious that Oscar could overlook Barbie, especially while smiling on Ken. What better way for Robbie’s actor peers to get revenge than by anointing her SAG’s Best Actress? A similar thing happened to Emily Blunt (a current SAG and Oscar Best Supporting Actress nominee for “Oppenheimer”) five years ago. After being singled out by SAG for Best Actress in “Mary Poppins Returns” and Best Supporting Actress in “A Quiet Place,” she was curiously snubbed by the academy in both races. SAG voters had their say, and gave Blunt the prize for the latter. To put it bluntly, SAG may do a similar thing this year. Robbie was robbed of a shot at the Oscar. SAG could steal from the poor (as in “Poor Things” star and previous “La La Land” SAG recipient Emma Stone) and give the riches to Robbie.
SEE Oscar nominations: How did your favorite films fare?
5. Her chief rivals have some serious disadvantages.
I’ll start with the widely praised Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” whom I was initially predicting and still believe is a major threat. However, the performance is so subdued and understated. As beautiful as it is, it lacks the type of theatrics that SAG members are typically drawn to. And as for Stone in “Poor Things” — she definitely has the material. However, overly artsy films don’t always appeal to the guild. That helps to explain why “Poor Things” missed out on a best cast citation. It also sheds light on key omissions in recent years, like Kristen Stewart for Best Actress in 2021’s “Spencer” and that same year’s “The Power of the Dog” for best film cast. Plus, many in SAG are aware that Stone took home both the Actor and the Oscar for 2016’s “La La Land.” Should they wish to spread the wealth, they may be reluctant to hand poor Emma a bookend statuette. As for Annette Bening in “Nyad” and Carey Mulligan in “Maestro,” neither has been able to generate much momentum in this most dynamic derby. That leaves Robbie as a real-life “Barbie” doll standing tall — and tallest amongst the five in this field.
6. I’m hearing lots of votes for her.
As I do every year, I have been aggressively polling SAG cardholders ahead of this month’s ceremony. I ask if they’ll vote and how they’ll vote — especially in the most competitive contests. While I had expected this to be a two-person race between Gladstone in “Killers” and Stone in “Poor Things,” I have been amazed at how many members keep saying Margot instead. I initially wrote it off, but I finally realized that it’s both possible and plausible. I’ll concede that I can’t guarantee the outcome. I may end up looking dumber than a Ken doll. But all child’s play put aside, I’m really not kidding. After being rained on by Oscar, Margot Robbie as “Barbie” could be headed for one heck of a sunny day at the beach at SAG.
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