Economic history dictates that the last leg of any battle against high inflation is the hardest, and so it is proving in the United States. Consumer price inflation remains sticky, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will have to engineer a so-called ‘hard landing’ (read recession) to bring inflation back to within its target range. Persistent high inflation or a recession - or both - are bad news for President Biden as he seeks reelection later this year against a resurgent Donald Trump. Increasingly bleak geopolitics…
