It’s been presumed for months now that the lead actress race in film categories at the various ceremonies was destined to be a two-way race between Emma Stone for “Poor Things” and Lily Gladstone for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Lately, it’s been more of a one-way race, with Stone topping BAFTA, the Golden Globes and Choice Choice honors. But in a Screen Actors Guild Film Awards predictions slugfest this week in advance of Saturday’s ceremony, Gold Derby senior editors Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon and Daniel Montgomery and news and features editor Ray Richmond were asked to consider a third contender: Margot Robbie for “Barbie.” This is because they were joined by encyclopedic awards expert extraordinaire and regular Gold Derby contributor Tariq Khan, who made a convincing case that Robbie was poised for a massive upset based on his personal survey of some 500 SAG Awards voters. Watch their lively discussion above.
“As I keep hearing those Margot Robbie votes,” Khan shares, “I ask, ‘Why?’ They tell me that they think she was robbed (in not getting nominated) for the Oscar. And they thought she was so wonderful in the film, and it was so unjust that they want to make it up to her. Plus, this is her fourth individual SAG nomination in seven years. She hasn’t won a solo one yet.” None of the four editors are going along with Khan’s assessment, even as he makes the further point that he’s found numerous voters have yet to see “Poor Things” because it isn’t streaming yet. Richmond is sticking with Stone because she’s steamrolled through awards season thus far. “It’s just too showy and too powerful a performance,” he believes. After Stone won at BAFTA, Dixon concedes, “Emma is way stronger than I was giving her credit for. So I switched to her from Gladstone.”
Montgomery is sticking with Gladstone, seeing it as a similar situation to last year’s Cate Blanchett-Michelle Yeoh race after Blanchett won at BAFTA and Yeoh “won at SAG and changed everything. It was an historic win. Same with Lily Gladstone. Here will be where Lily rights the ship. And if she can’t right it here then it’s over for her (at the Oscars).”
In Best Film Actor, Davidson finds the race “perplexing,” still believing it a three-way competition “even though (“Maestro’s”) Bradley Cooper’s lost everything as everyone keeps reminding us. Cillian Murphy just won the BAFTA. He hasn’t lost anything that he’s needed. I think this one’s up in the air. I’m going with (“Oppenheimer’s”) Cillian Murphy just because I feel like he has the momentum.” That momentum came from his win on Monday at BAFTA in London, though Richmond is still going with Globes/Critics Choice victor Paul Giamatti for “The Holdovers.” Giamatti is hugely loved by the guild, and I believe some voters will think ‘Oppenheimer’ has won enough,” Richmond says, Montgomery is picking Giamatti in a close race. “I feel like ‘The Holdovers’ is the warmest, most huggable movie,” he says, “and it’s a showier role than Murphy has.” Dixon expresses that this category has given him way too much stress over the past few months. “Paul is my pick for right now, but I don’t know,” he admits.
And Khan? His research tells him this one’s going Cooper’s way, though he adds, “Unfortunately I can’t guarantee this one. This year it’s close because I hear a lot of votes for Paul Giamatti. He’s a beloved, respected actor and people just love him. And he’s a three-time individual SAG winner. So, he has a chance. But I think it will be Cooper. I hear a lot of votes for him, and almost all of my best SAG sources say Bradley, He’s playing a real person and it’s Leonard Bernstein, an icon, and he had to learn and master his speech and movements.”
All five men agree that “Oppenheimer’s” Robert Downey Jr. is a slam dunk for supporting actor. But there’s debate over supporting actress, where the money is all on Da’Vine Joy Randolph for “The Holdovers” given her clean sweep of awards season thus far. She won Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA and is a heavy Oscar favorite. That’s more than enough to convince Davidson, Montgomery, Dixon and Richmond – but not Khan, whose polling is telling him it’ll be Danielle Brooks for “The Color Purple” despite her having been shut out thus far during awards season.
“Unless my polling is way off, there’s just no way that Brooks does not win,” Khan maintains. “I’m not saying she’s going t win the Oscar, but SAG, we’re going to see a different choice here. I hear some votes for Randolph. People think it was a very moving performance. But Brooks just crushes it. And remember that ‘Color Purple’ is a best cast nominee and ‘The Holdovers is not,’ and historically you have a better chance for an individual prize if your film is up for best cast. That helped both Michelle Yeoh and Jamie Lee Curtis last year.”
The SAG Awards take place at the Shrine Auditorium & Expo Hall this Saturday at 5 p.m. PST/8 p.m. EST and stream over Netflix.
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