Last year at this time, Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” enjoyed a comfortable lead in Gold Derby’s official odds for Best Supporting Actress at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. She had already picked up both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards. And even though she lost at BAFTA to Kerry Condon in “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Bassett was expected to quickly rebound at SAG before ultimately securing the Oscar.
As we all know, that’s not how things played out. Jamie Lee Curtis in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” managed a come-from-behind win at the SAG Awards. And two weeks later, she was clutching the Academy Award as Bassett had to watch in dismay.
Could we be in for another Supporting Actress game-changer on February 25? Judging by the Gold Derby odds, Golden Globe and Critics Choice choice Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers” will soon be holding the SAG statuette. But watch out for a winter awards storm that could blow the race in a very different direction. Here are five reasons why Danielle Brooks in “The Color Purple” could become another surprise SAG Awards winner for Best Supporting Actress.
1. She steals the movie in a way that no other nominee in the lineup does.
I saw “The Color Purple” at the first New York City screening in November. While those in attendance seemed to thoroughly enjoy the movie, they burst into applause every time Brooks completed a scene. As the sassy Sofia, the actress is simply electrifying in the way that she delivers every line, laugh, look. And when she bursts into song, she takes the character to a whole new level. As the end credits rolled. it was the name “Danielle Brooks” that received the loudest ovation. (And there are some big names in those credits.) I saw “The Color Purple” a second time in December with a regular ticket-buying audience. Once again, it was Brooks who stole the show. People would howl every time she appeared on camera. Afterwards, I continued to hear moviegoers rave about Brooks’ performance. With all due respect to Randolph and the other nominees – did any of their performances elicit such a response? Scene-stealer Brooks could end up running away red (or in this case, purple) handed at SAG.
2. Support for the front-runner may not be as strong as people think.
The reason for Randolph’s daunting lead in the odds is undoubtedly because of her impressive critics’ awards haul, as well as her victories at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice ceremonies. But as we know, the SAG-AFTRA voting body is not comprised of critics. We can’t just assume that some 150,000 members will blindly follow a move made by the Golden Globes. And the average SAG member couldn’t even tell you who prevailed at the Critics Choice Awards. So Randolph’s success could be short-lived once we see how actors weigh in on this contest.
3. “The Color Purple” scored a SAG nomination for best cast.
While it missed the top categories at the Golden Globes and Oscars, it was singled about by the SAG nominating committee for consideration as best ensemble. It took a spot that might have otherwise gone to major awards players like “The Holdovers,” “Past Lives” and “Poor Things.” That indicates that there is significant support for “The Color Purple” amongst actors. Furthermore, individual SAG nominees who hail from a best cast entry often have an edge over those who don’t, particularly in the supporting races. I’ll throw out a few recent examples. Mahershala Ali in 2016’s “Moonlight” over Dev Patel in “Lion.” Sam Rockwell in 2017’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” over Willem Dafoe in “The Florida Project” and Richard Jenkins in “The Shape of Water.” Yuh-Jung Youn in 2020’s “Minari” over Glenn Close in “Hillbilly Elegy” and Olivia Colman in “The Father.” Troy Kotsur in 2021’s Best Cast “CODA” over Kodi Smit-McPhee in “The Power of the Dog.” And as I mentioned earlier, Curtis in 2022’s Best Cast “Everything Everywhere All at Once” over Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” In each of those cases, the actor whose film was nominated for best cast defeated an actor whose film was not. The fact that “The Color Purple” made it in while “The Holdovers” did not is good news for Brooks and a troubling sign for Randolph.
4. She’s already a multi-SAG champion for “Orange is the New Black.”
While she never earned a solo nom, Brooks was honored for her part in the television show when it was named best comedy ensemble three years in a row. When I speak to SAG voters about Brooks in “The Color Purple,” I can’t tell you how many times I hear actors comment about how much they loved watching her in “Orange is the New Black.” Meanwhile, first-time SAG contender Randolph seems to be much less familiar to the average person in SAG. Orange may not usually match with purple, but the combination of “Orange” and “The Color Purple” makes Brooks look pretty good to much of the SAG society.
5. I’m hearing lots of votes for her.
And they’re very enthusiastic votes. As I’ve been doing my annual SAG polling, Brooks is handily winning the supporting actress race among those who have seen both “The Color Purple” and “The Holdovers.” I must acknowledge that I have encountered a number of undecided voters, as not everyone has gotten around to seeing all the films represented in this category. But the groundswell that I’m detecting for Brooks leads me to believe that she is clearly a threat at the SAG festivities. So don’t be shocked if it’s “Danielle” and not “Da’Vine” whose name is read — her “Purple” performance resulting in a most brilliant shade of SAG gold.
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