“Oppenheimer” is predicted to do pretty well at this year’s Oscars with expected victories in multiple above-the-line categories including Best Picture, Best Director for Christopher Nolan, and Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr. However, it could also pick up a fair number of below-the-line wins, too, including Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing.
The Universal film is predicted to win both awards. Because these two are so vital in telling a story via the visual medium, it makes perfect sense that they are both expected to go to the Best Picture winner. But let’s take a closer look here.
Firstly, is there a link between Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing? How often do they go to the same movie? And how about both categories’ relationship with Best Picture? Individually, how do they link? And how about movies that have taken home the trifecta of Picture, Cinematography, and Film Editing? Well, let’s take a look at the last 20 ceremonies to work all of this out.
As you can see, there was much more overlap between these three categories in the first of these two decades. The last 10 years have thrown up more separation between the three categories. Here’s the breakdown.
Seven films have won Best Film Editing and Best Picture: “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” in 2004, “Crash” in 2006, “The Departed” in 2007, “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2009, “The Hurt Locker” in 2010, “Argo” in 2013, and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in 2013. This is the most common combination. This tells us that Film Editing and Picture do still have a combination even though we had that run of six years from 2016 to 2021 where three different movies won these three categories each year. A Best Picture hopeful still needs to compete for Best Film Editing, then.
Four movies have won both Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing: “The Aviator” in 2005, “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2009, “Gravity” in 2014, and “Dune” in 2022. The fact that four films have won both Cinematography and Film Editing suggests that there isn’t enough of a link here to read much into unless the academy really like the film.
The profile of the four movies that all won both Cinematography and Film Editing is all the same: they were adored by the academy, were Best Picture winners or strong contenders, and all won the most Academy Awards overall in their respective years.
Two flicks have taken home Best Cinematography and Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2009 and “Birdman” in 2015. A potential Best Picture champion doesn’t need to worry about doing well in Best Cinematography.
And only one movie in the last 20 years has won all three of Cinematography, Film Editing, and Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2009. It swept the board that year and won eight Oscars overall including Best Picture and Best Director for Danny Boyle. So, unless a film is going to perform in a similar manner, don’t expect it to win these three categories.
So… the question is… can any film repeat the achievement of “Slumdog Millionaire?” The 10 Best Picture nominees are “American Fiction,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Past Lives,” “Poor Things,” and “The Zone of Interest.”
The Best Cinematography contenders are “El Conde” (Edward Lachman), “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Rodrigo Prieto), “Maestro” (Matthew Libatique), “Oppenheimer” (Hoyte van Hoytema), and “Poor Things” (Robbie Ryan).
And the Best Film Editing nominees are “Anatomy of a Fall” (Laurent Sénéchal), “The Holdovers” (Kevin Tent), “Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoomaker), “Oppenheimer” (Jennifer Lame), and “Poor Things” (Yorgos Mavropsaridis).
Three films could win both Cinematography and Film Editing: “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Poor Things.” Four films could take home Picture and Cinematography: “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Poor Things.” All five of the Film Editing nominees are Best Picture nominees, so they could all win both.
Only three movies could win all three awards: “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Poor Things.”
But who are we expecting to win in each award? Well, it’s the same answer for each category: “Oppenheimer.” Yep, we are predicting that “Oppenheimer” will join “Slumdog Millionaire” and become only the second movie in the last 21 years to win the trifecta of Best Picture, Best Cinematography, and Best Film Editing.
This would be some feat for producers Nolan, Emma Thomas, and Charles Roven, director of photography Hoytema, and editor Lame. But we expect it to happen and don’t think any film is particularly close to causing an upset in any of the three categories. “Anatomy of a Fall” is second in Film Editing, “Killers of the Flower Moon” is second in Cinematography, and “The Holdovers” is second in Picture. But… It’s “Oppenheimer” all the way.
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