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The discourse surrounding Brock Purdy is sure to reach a breaking point before the Super Bowl.
Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 draft, quarterbacked the most efficient offense in the NFL this season. He also enjoys all the benefits that come with playing in coach Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and having All-Pros at left tackle, running back and tight end.
So what does all that mean? Is he a game manager? Some would argue yes. Is he elite? Others would support that sentiment, too.
What’s indisputable is he’s significantly over-delivered on his draft position and is headed to the Big Game where a head-to-head matchup with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes awaits. Purdy’s predecessor Jimmy Garoppolo lost to him on this same stage four years ago.
Though the San Francisco 49ers are favored to beat Kansas City, Mahomes is the betting favorite to win Super Bowl MVP. That said, let’s take a deeper look at Purdy’s player prop markets to get an idea of his individual statistical expectations.
Over 1.5 (-110) | Under 1.5 (-110)
Purdy’s passing touchdowns this season came in bunches. He had five games with three or more and seven with one or fewer. Though Purdy’s 31 touchdowns were good for third-most in the NFL, he’s thrown just two in two playoff games so far. The Chiefs finished tied for the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed (19) this year and Steve Spagnuolo’s shut-down secondary has surrendered just one in each of their three postseason games to Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Purdy has one of the best pass-catching groups in the league at his disposal but the 49ers are also content to finish scoring drives on the ground with Christian McCaffrey, or even Deebo Samuel.
Over 243.5 (-110) | Under 243.5 (-110)
The Chiefs pass defense is significantly stingier than that of the Packers or Lions, the two teams Purdy threw for more than 250 yards against on his way to the Super Bowl. The second-year pro finished fifth in passing yards (4,280) and sixth in passing yards per game (267.5) this season. He’s also gone over 243.5 yards in 12 of 18 total games, including the playoffs. Kansas City allowed just 176.5 passing yards per game to opponents in the regular season and that’s up to just 209.7 in the postseason despite the gauntlet of quarterbacks that defense has gone up against.
Over 21.5 (-105) | Under 20.5 (-125)
Purdy’s accuracy is one of his greatest strengths. He completed 69.4% of his attempts in the regular season but an off game against Green Bay has dragged that mark down to 61.4% in the postseason. Because his number of attempts are typically low — 19 quarterbacks threw more passes than him this year — his completions tend to land in the teens. Purdy has only completed 22 passes four times this season, though he has done so in two of his last three games. Interestingly, the juice is on the under against a Chiefs defense that was among the league leaders in completion percentage (61.4%).
Over 31.5 (-110) | Under 31.5 (-110)
Purdy’s average pass attempts are up considerably in the playoffs from 27.75 per game to 35. His 39 throws against the Packers set a new career-high and that game was also only the fourth time he’s aired the ball out at least 32 times this year. Tagovailoa and Allen each attempted 39 passes against K.C. and Jackson threw 37 times in the AFC title game.
Over 0.5 (-105) | Under 0.5 (-125)
Purdy threw his first career playoff interception last week against Detroit. It was his 12th of the season overall and the seventh game in which he was picked off. Eight of Purdy’s interceptions came in three games as he threw four against the Ravens and two each against the Bengals and Vikings. The Chiefs only picked off eight passes this season, which was tied for third-fewest. They do, however, have two in the playoffs as they intercepted both Tagovailoa and Jackson once.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Over 11.5 (-110) | Under 11.5 (-110)
Purdy’s mobility took the Lions by surprise in the NFC Championship as he romped for 48 yards on five attempts, including a 21-yard scramble. He has only finished with more than 20 yards on the ground one other time in his career. However, Purdy has now recorded double-digit rushing yards in back-to-back games and he showed off his mobility earlier in the year in the loss to Cincinnati when he finished with 57 yards on six rushes. Both Allen and Jackson, perhaps the two best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, lead their team in rushing against Kansas City with over 50 yards apiece.
Over 259.5 (-110) | Under 259.5 (-110)
Rushing yards aren’t a reliable proposition week in and week out from Purdy, although he is more than capable of going over this combined total with his passing yards alone. He did so last week in the win over Detroit even without his rushing yards and he’s also gone over 259.5 total yards nine other times this season with his rushing totals factored in. The uptick in rushing attempts and production in the playoffs from Purdy could help make this number more attainable against such a talented Chiefs defense.
First TD (+4600) | Last TD (+3700) | Anytime TD (+800)
The sports books don’t anticipate Purdy making any trips to the end zone in the Big Game. Twelve players and both defenses have better odds than him to score a touchdown. The last time Purdy found pay dirt was a Week 4 win against the Cardinals. He has just four rushing touchdowns in 30 games, including one in the playoffs last season. Purdy’s odds are long for a reason — McCaffrey, Samuel and Elijah Mitchell handle the goal-line work and he has never been targeted in his career.
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