It is time.
The NCAA First Four games begin seven weeks from today in Dayton, so we are less than 50 days from the start of the NCAA Tournament.
As of this morning, the Bearcats are very much on the bubble -- some bracketologists might have them slightly in, but most probably have them just barely out. There are plenty of resume wins available, but they need to seize the opportunities and try to avoid the few bad losses available.
Positives:
- Good metrics (31 KenPom, 32 NET among others)
- No bad losses (11-0 in Q3/Q4 games)
- Currently 2 Q1 wins (at BYU, home versus TCU*)
- Good record: 14-6 and a respectable 3-4 in the best league
Negatives:
- Poor non-conference strength of schedule (0-2 versus Dayton, Xavier - the only true quality opponents faced)
- 3-6 Q1/Q2 record (need more quality wins)
- Several close losses/missed chances
- There are 11 NCAA Tournament contenders in the Big 12 and UC may be at the bottom of that list
* TCU is #30 in the NET and would drop to a Q2 win if they slide to 31 or below
Traps
- Two games versus West Virginia, #151 in the NET as of today (road game would be Q2 if top 135; home game would be Q4 if WVU slips below 160)
- Home game versus #139 Oklahoma State (Q3)
Opportunities:
- Other remaining games: at Texas Tech (26 NET), Houston (1), Iowa State (10), at UCF (71), at TCU (30), at Houston (1), Kansas State (73), at Oklahoma (33) -- as of today, 7 Q1 games + Kansas State is a Q2 if KSU stays at 75 or above.
- Big 12 Tournament -- any game will be Q1 or Q2 except, as of today, WVU and OSU
** Of course, the NET is just one metric and not the end all be all.
