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Stocks have surged to record levels this year, not because of potential interest-rate cuts or recession relief, but because investors are betting on Donald Trump to be re-elected — at least according to the former president.
"THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday. "BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP."
"EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE (WATCH THE MIDDLE EAST!), AND RECORD SETTING INFLATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN ITS TOLL," he continued.
The benchmark S&P 500, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, and venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average have notched record highs in recent days.
Trump appears to be taking credit for the market boom, in a bid to prevent it from boosting Joe Biden and the sitting president's reelection campaign.
The reality-TV star took a slightly different tack in December, however, complaining the rally was "making rich people richer."
Trump repeatedly boasted about rising stocks during his time in office, and warned in 2020 that electing Biden would trigger a "stock-market collapse the likes of which you've never had."
In contrast to Trump's claims, many experts have attributed the striking rally to a brightening economic outlook.
Stocks tumbled in 2022 as historic inflation spurred the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates from virtually zero to more than 5% within 18 months. The hikes fanned fears of slower growth, a spike in unemployment, corporate bankruptcies, and even a full-blown recession.
However, stocks rebounded strongly last year as the US economy proved resilient to steeper borrowing costs, the pace of price growth slowed, and joblessness remained historically low.
They've notched further gains this year as new data has shown the economy grew by a surprisingly strong 3.3% in the fourth quarter, annualized inflation has cooled from over 9% to 3.4% in December, and unemployment held at 3.7% last month.
Moreover, the Fed has penciled in several rate cuts this year, which could encourage spending over saving and reduce borrowing costs, making a recession less likely and boosting companies' profits and stock prices.
Trump is presumably aware of the key drivers fueling the stock market's advance, and knows they probably don't include his possible reelection. He may be laying claim to the market's gains under Biden, and dangling the prospect of further outperformance if he retakes the White House, to give him an edge ahead of November's election.
Several experts have echoed Trump's warnings about the damage already done by inflation and the threat posed by foreign conflicts.
JPMorgan's Bob Michele has flagged the impact of higher prices on poorer households, while hedge-fund titan Ray Dalio and bank chief Jamie Dimon have warned of fallout from the fighting in the Middle East.
