A police motorcycle burns during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini in Tehran. Photo: Reuters/West Asia News Agency
In today’s Iran, a country teetering on the brink of the abyss and nearing total destruction, the sorrowful and fragmented society is desperately crying out for movement, cheer, and hope. The once vibrant nation now finds itself engulfed in despair, anxiety, protest, and anger, effectively trapped in a stagnant cesspool from which escape seems an insurmountable challenge.
The root cause of this dire situation is a despotic religious government, which, through its rigid and wretched governance, has devastated the entire country, leaving its people in a state of hopeless entrapment.
The religious octopus’ facade has cracked, revealing deep rifts between the detested and corrupt divine government and Iranian society.
Reflecting on the events since 1979, particularly after the decade of Ayatollah Khomeini’s tyranny that saw Ayatollah Khamenei succeed him and ascend to absolute power without the people’s consent or vote, it’s evident that Iranian society has repeatedly risen against its oppressors. Nearly 18 times, the people have mobilized in protest against religious despotism and swamp-like situations, only to be met with brutal repression, resulting in countless deaths and injuries. Each failed uprising has left the society more fragmented, intimidated by the regime’s overwhelming force, and ultimately finding itself in despair.
This cycle of protest and repression has been exacerbated by the regime’s crackdown on any semblance of dissent, employing executions, imprisonments, and fines to instill fear among the populace. The aim is clear: to solidify the prison that is Iran today. Despite this, there is a simmering unrest beneath — a clear indication that the current situation is untenable.
My previous article for The Algemeiner, “Does America Have a Plan Once Iran’s Supreme Leader Dies?,” raises a crucial question about the future of Iran and the international response to its impending political vacuum. The impending death of Ali Khamenei and the question of succession could potentially trigger an “internal” transformation, offering a glimmer of hope for change. However, those within the regime’s inner circle are likely to seek to maintain their grip on power, sidelining public opinion and democratic aspirations in favor of military and security governance. The impending power struggle and internal rifts following Ali Khamenei’s death, and the ensuing succession crisis, are critical factors to consider
The religious government, with its extensive control over society, represents a significant barrier to Iran’s progress. The question then becomes: what will happen to Iranian society, especially the disillusioned young, non-religious generation, when this barrier finally collapses? The road towards democracy and the post-Islamic Republic era is fraught with challenges, including the enduring legacy of the 1979 upheaval and the resistance from those who cling to the past.
Programs encouraging society towards democracy and transitioning towards a post-Islamic Republic era may better start from this point, but a thousand other obstacles remain, including the remnants of participants in the 1979 upheaval who do not want the new generation to move past 1979 and Khomeinism.
Iran’s transition to democracy requires time, patience, and the emergence of dedicated, patriotic leaders capable of guiding the nation through its countless obstacles. These leaders must confront not only the remnants of the regime, but also secessionist threats, opportunistic revolutionaries, and forces of division. The transformation of a society accustomed to tyranny and fragmentation into one governed by democratic principles cannot happen overnight.
The notion that Iranians will seamlessly transition to a democratic system post-regime collapse is overly optimistic. The opposition, marked by its own issues of greed and disunity, seems ill-prepared for the future.
In the transition towards a stable and democratic Iran, the nation requires patriotic, firm, and compassionate leaders to navigate through the challenges posed by remnants of the oppressive regime, secessionist threats, and divisive forces. These leaders must guide Iran from the chaos of its current state towards genuine democracy and freedom, overcoming the naivety that a smooth transition will occur immediately, and addressing the deep-seated issues and expectations of a society on the brink of catastrophe.
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA. He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). Erfan is a Jewish Kurd of Iran, and he is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD
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