As the Gaza War extends beyond 100 days with no end in sight, a potential months-long respite from fighting has arisen. A ceasefire will allow the release of another set of Israeli hostages and another set of Palestinian prisoners.
But beyond this ongoing series of exchanges, no end to the war is in sight. The bombing, the raids, and the exchanges will go on for months and months. This perpetual state of conflict is exactly what the two men leading both sides seek.
On one side, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin remains steadfast in emphasizing an unachievable strategic objective for the war: the total eradication of Hamas in Gaza. The governing body of Gaza since 2007, Hamas has its vile fingers in all aspects of Gazan governance and society.
Hamas is not only the enclave's military force, but also its school system, its trash collection and its police. Hamas blends so deeply into Gazan society that its complete elimination — Netanyahu's stated goal — would likely require killing virtually every adult male.
Further, Israel has no strategy beyond smashing Gaza to bits. There is no transition plan, no concept of phasing out Israeli forces, or phasing in an outside security force. Netanyahu refuses to turn Gaza over to a reformed Palestinian Authority. He has ruled out the White House's proposal for a post-war Palestinian State. He has no viable remaining option — even a security handover to Sunni Arab militaries would be unpalatable in those countries without a Palestinian State.
On the other side of this gruesome conflict, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's leader, remains elusive, likely underground and mixed with Israeli hostages. Like his counterpart, Sinwar wants the war to continue in perpetuity. Hamas's goal in such a savage attack as Oct. 7 was to force an Israeli overreaction. The terror group wanted images of a dystopian hellscape, featuring destroyed hospitals, dead children, and wailing babies — precisely what the Israel Defense Forces have since delivered.
Before the war began, half of Gazans did not want Hamas to break the ceasefire. In fact, 70 percent of them wanted Hamas to disarm and formally hand power over to the Palestinian Authority.
But now Hamas has seen its stature, prestige and acclaim grow dramatically as the fighting continues. Palestinians — like many Muslims in the Middle East — view Hamas's war as a legitimate form of defiance against Israeli oppression. Sinwar always wanted a war of resistance, embraced by the Muslim world. He now hopes to bleed Israel dry, to keep the IDF tied down in Gaza and to employ Hamas's well-honed information operations program to turn the world against Israel.
Sinwar's strategic approach pivots on the more than 100 hostages remaining in Hamas control. He will keep them alive and use them as leverage in a series of staggered pauses, during which Hamas's forces consolidate ammunition, repair defensive positions and replace troops on the front lines. Keeping such a large group of hostages alive in combat in a devastated landscape is a colossal task of planning and resourcing, but it is vital to preserving conflict.
The return of Palestinian prisoners from Israel at a rate of two to one in exchange for Israeli hostages makes Sinwar a hero in the Muslim world. His stature will continue to grow with each exchange. Sinwar knows his popularity and the acclaim of his organization will continue to rise in the months to come.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, was a largely reviled figure before the war and grew more despised as the battle continued. Netanyahu's image was always that of the man who would keep Israelis safe from the rest of the world. In secretly propping up Hamas for almost a decade while pushing settlements into the West Bank, he has done the opposite. The war is his mechanism to remain in power; once the fighting stops, Israelis will likely vote him out.
Once out of office, the 73-year-old Netanyahu will suffer a worse fate than political failure. He is charged with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in three separate scandals. The longer he remains in power, the longer he can delay facing the consequences of these charges. The trials, repeatedly delayed, have recently resumed, but are expected to drag on slowly while he adjudicates the war. Should the war end, Bibi will surely face justice.
So, with no viable off-ramp and two leaders keen to keep the blood flowing, the war will persist. The awful suffering it brings will continue for months and months, through 2024 and perhaps even into 2025. Peace and resolution take a back seat to Sinwar's political agenda and Netanayhu's need for self-preservation.
Joe Buccino is a retired U.S. Army colonel with five combat tours in the Middle East. He served as U.S. Central Command communications director from 2021 until September 2023. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense or any other organization.
