The Super Bowl matchup is set, and there’s no shortage of ways to dive into the Feb. 11 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
There’s plenty of time left to get into prop bets and things of that nature, but one of the more intriguing betting markets is the Super Bowl MVP. It’s a pretty basic idea, of course, but it allows you a different avenue to bet the game that gives a little more value without a ton of risk.
For example, as of Monday morning, the Chiefs were -104 on the moneyline to win the game outright. Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the MVP at +130. Five of the last seven Super Bowl MVP winners have been quarterbacks, and 12 of the 17 have been QBs dating back to Peyton Manning’s win in Super Bowl XLI. There have been 57 Super Bowls, and quarterbacks have been named MVP in 32 of them.
Mahomes is the best player on the planet, so if the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl, it’s probably worth betting him to win MVP and get an extra buck-plus over the moneyline.
Of course, it doesn’t always work that way. Here’s a quick rundown of some of the favorites and how they could win Super Bowl MVP (all odds from FanDuel Sportsbook).
Patrick Mahomes (+130), Brock Purdy (+210)
Again, quarterbacks win this award a lot. We made the case for Mahomes. Purdy’s inconsistency makes him tougher to trust, but if the San Fran offense looks like it has for most of the year, especially against a very strong KC defense, Purdy might be the winner by default — assuming he’s spreading it around.
Christian McCaffrey (+480)
Easy to see how this one plays out: Purdy struggles against the Chiefs’ defense, but McCaffrey runs for 100 yards, adds another 75 through the air and scores a pair of touchdowns in a game that’s otherwise a defensive struggle. All things considered, this might be the best value on the board.
Travis Kelce (+2000)
Narratives probably shouldn’t play a role in this, but they sometimes do. Kelce has narratives in spades. He’s nearing the end of his career — perhaps even his final game? — which is a good story on its own. He’s also dating the most famous person in the entire world, Taylor Swift, which will shine a spotlight even brighter on him. He was sensational in Baltimore on Sunday, catching 11 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. He largely faded in the second half with the rest of the KC offense, but if he adds four more catches, including a touchdown, and gets to 150 yards, he’d make it a debate, although it probably still goes to Mahomes in that case.
Deebo Samuel (+3800)
He does it all for San Francisco. He’d probably have to catch a touchdown, run for one and maybe even throw for another. It’s rare for wideouts to win it, but two receivers (Julian Edelman, Cooper Kupp) have taken home the hardware in the last five years.
Isiah Pacheco (+4000)
If Mahomes has the worst game of his life, and the receiving corps is kept quiet, but the Chiefs win a slugfest behind Pacheco’s 100 yards on the ground, maybe it happens. Terrell Davis was the last running back to win the MVP, and that was in Super Bowl XXXII — 26 years ago.
Nick Bosa (+10000), Chris Jones (+13000)
Let’s get weird! Von Miller won the MVP at Super Bowl 50 for his performance: six tackles, 2.5 sacks and a pass defended. Malcolm Smith won it two years before that when he had a pick-six, a fumble recovery and 10 tackles. Bosa and Jones might be the two best defensive linemen in the NFL, and they are more than capable of putting forth a stat line like that. The game script is pretty evident, too: In Miller’s case, that was a low-scoring rockfight in which you almost had to give it to the defense given how ineffective Manning and Cam Newton were. As far as Smith (who wasn’t even listed in the MVP odds), the Seahawks’ 43-8 beatdown made it a lot easier to look at a defensive player. Both of these defenses at least have the talent to force a similar laugher, even if the defensive thing is very rare.
