In early 2016, as most Americans might have been focused on the presidential debates, halfway around the world, a story was unfolding that had the makings of a Tom Clancy novel – but sadly the best-selling author had died a few years earlier and didn't even get to witness it unfold in real life. It involved a missing submarine and efforts to find it, and much like his debut novel, it appears the boat was never "officially recovered," and the U.S. maintains the boat was presumed lost.
While it probably wasn't a top-secret stealth submarine that could sneak up on New York City and be able to launch a first strike against the United States, the fact that a submarine was lost in peacetime was still newsworthy.
According to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) maintains one of the world’s largest submarine fleets, with estimates for the total fleet ranging from about 64 to 86 submarines – including coastal submarines (SSCs), conventional submarines (SS), and mini-submarines (SSMs).
While Pyongyang's submarine fleet is largely comprised of small coastal submarines suitable for coastal defense, infiltration, and espionage missions, and its larger submarines are based on decades-old Soviet designs, North Korea has attempted to enhance its submarine capabilities.
Not surprisingly, North Korea has also faced some setbacks – including the loss of an unknown class of submarine in early March 2016. The vessel was reportedly operating off the North Korean coast when it simply disappeared.
"It went missing and the speculation is that it sank," a U.S. official told USNI News at the time. "The North Koreans have not made an attempt to indicate there is something wrong or that they require help or some type of assistance."
Given that the type of submarine was, in fact, unknown and could have been a prototype for a new design, U.S. and South Korea paid especially close attention to North Korea's efforts to find its lost boat.
American spy satellites, aircraft, and ships had watched as the North Korean Navy searched for the missing sub, the report said.
However, what also made the hunt for the sub almost as compelling as a novel by Clancy is that Washington was as tight-lipped as Pyongyang about where the boat may have sunk. There was considerable speculation that the incident occurred near one of North Korea's two submarine bases on the Sea of Japan (East Sea), but the Hermit Kingdom also operated three smaller facilities for coastal and midget submarines.
The submarine was never officially found, so the depth at which it sank has also been a mystery.
Even the smaller diesel submarines that operate close to shore and hold a crew of fewer than 30 or 40 sailors have been seen to pose a serious threat to South Korea – both to its military and civilian vessels. Anti-submarine warfare has been a major capability gap in the South's Republic of Korea Navy.
As USNI News also reported, in 2010 the ROK Navy corvette Cheonan was sunk by a torpedo presumably from a North Korean midget submarine killing 46 sailors.
In addition, in September 1996, North Korea inserted three special operations soldiers via submarine near the city of Gangneung.
At this point, all we can do is make guesses. Perhaps the lost submarine was payback for those past incidents, perhaps it was stolen by the U.S. to uncover advanced North Korean technology, or perhaps it was just a really old sub that was barely seaworthy and which sank killing the whole crew.
Most experts would probably pick the latter one as the most likely explanation – yet, if Clancy were still around, he'd have spun quite the yarn! It would have involved intrigue, rogue officials, and larger-than-life heroes. Sometimes real life just is not as exciting.
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
Image Credit: Creative Commons.
