The BAFTA nominations, which were announced on January 18 at the much more reasonable time of 12pm GMT, threw up some shock omissions. Leonardo DiCaprio continued his bad week after his SAG snub by missing out on a BAFTA Best Actor bid for “Killers of the Flower Moon” while his co-star, Lily Gladstone, was omitted from the Best Actress lineup. The shocks didn’t stop in the lead categories, however, as “May December” actress Julianne Moore was overlooked for Best Supporting Actress and “Poor Things” star Mark Ruffalo was left out of the Best Supporting Actor lineup. It’s Ruffalo who we are focusing on here.
The three-time Oscar nominee plays the rakish scoundrel Duncan Wedderburn in Searchlight Pictures’ “Poor Things,” which follows Emma Stone as a woman, Bella Baxter, brought back to life by Willem Dafoe‘s scientist. Duncan enters the picture as the scientist’s lawyer, an absolute cad, but soon whisks Bella off for his own nefarious reasons. Ruffalo has the time of his life playing Duncan and looked to have a fourth Oscar nomination locked up after securing bids at the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes.
However, he was then snubbed at SAG while his co-star Dafoe got in alongside Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”), Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”), and Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”). He made BAFTA’s Best Supporting Actor longlist but was left out once again when they announced their nominations on January 18. Instead, BAFTA nominated De Niro, Downey Jr., and Gosling alongside Jacob Elordi (“Saltburn”), Paul Mescal (“All of Us Strangers”), and Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”).
Currently, Ruffalo is still in our predicted five nominees for Best Supporting Actor with Downey Jr., Gosling, De Niro, and Dafoe. But after those two glaring omissions, he could be about to leave the pack he’s been a solid part of for so long. Instead, here’s three names who could get in over him.
Charles Melton — “May December”
Charles Melton delivers a breakout performance in Netflix’s “May December” as one half of a couple whose lives are examined by an actress researching them for a movie based on their past scandal. The scandal in question concerns how the couple’s affair started — when the woman was in her 30s and the boy was only 13. Melton provides one of the best supporting performances of the year and deserves to be a lock at this point. In reality, he’s far from it. Like Ruffalo, he got in at Critics Choice and Golden Globes but missed out at SAG and BAFTA. He could still get in, but conversely to “American Fiction,” support for “May December seems to be waning. The film could get shut out completely.
Dominic Sessa — “The Holdovers”
Another breakout star. Sessa more than holds his own opposite Paul Giamatti in this Focus Features flick following a teacher forced to look after a student who has to stay behind at their boarding school during Christmas. Sessa had been left out of every precursor Best Supporting Actor lineup until the BAFTAs came along. That could indicate a late surge towards an Oscar nomination. It’s always better to surge late than, ah, arrive early, so to speak. And no film is increasing in popularity more than “The Holdovers,” which is fast gaining momentum. Alexander Payne seems like a lock for a Best Director bid after his BAFTA and DGA nominations Giamatti could very well win Best Actor after he triumphed at both the Globes and the Critics Choice Awards (over “Oppenheimer” star Cillian Murphy). The film is also predicted to be nominated for Best Picture and win Best Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) and Best Original Screenplay. Sessa could easily get swept along for the ride here as “The Holdovers” is strengthening big time at exactly the right moment.
Sterling K. Brown — “American Fiction”
Brown features in Amazon’s “American Fiction,” which stars Jeffrey Wright as a novelist fed up of people profiting from “Black” entertainment only to then write a book in the same vein and profit from his hypocrisy. Brown shines as the estranged brother of Wright’s novelist. He got in at both the Critics Choice Awards and the SAG Awards, which seems to be a better combination than Critics Choice and Golden Globes. While he was left out at BAFTA, support for “American Fiction” only seems to be increasing. We predict it will be nominated for Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay so Brown could get taken along for the ride.
None of these actors have ever been nominated for an Oscar while Ruffalo is a three-time nominee. Those bids all came for Best Supporting Actor: in 2011 for “The Kids Are All Right,” in 2015 for “Foxcatcher,” and in 2016 for “Spotlight.” Downey Jr., De Niro, Gosling, Ruffalo, and Dafoe are all previous Oscar nominees (or winners in the case of De Niro).
It’s rare that the Best Supporting Actor lineup consists entirely of performers already nominated for Oscars. The last time that happened was in 2020 when winner Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) was nominated alongside Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”), Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”), and “The Irishman” stars Al Pacino and Joe Pesci. Before that, it last happened in 2013 when Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”) triumphed over fellow nominees Alan Arkin (“Argo”), De Niro (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”), and Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”).
Oscar history in this category, then, suggests that one of this year’s predicted nominees will drop out in favour of handing a first nomination to another actor. Ruffalo seems most at risk of dropping out with Brown his most likely replacement. But don’t be surprised to see Sessa land a last minute bid, either.
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