Events in the Middle East are rapidly spinning out of control. The Biden administration’s policy of placating Iran in hopes of avoiding a larger conflict is having the opposite effect. It's made war more likely.
President Joe Biden’s policies have not convinced Iran to become a responsible power, they have emboldened Iran and its proxies to launch increasingly aggressive actions. If they sink a ship or kill Americans, we would be dragged into a war we don’t want, are unprepared to fight ... and might have been avoided if President Donald Trump’s policies had remained in place.
Starting on October 7, when Hamas killed hundreds of Israeli civilians, Iran has unleashed its proxies – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen – to attack U.S., Israeli, and allied military, civilian and commercial interests, facilities and ships.
IRANIAN PROXIES STEPPING UP THEIR DRONE ATTACKS IN WAR WITH ISRAEL
In these last three months, Iran’s proxies have launched over 100 attacks on U.S. outposts in Syria and Iraq. Iran’s Houthi rebels are now firing daily on ships in the Red Sea.
So far, we’ve engaged in perimeter defense of these ships, destroying Houthi missiles just before they reach their targets.
Finally, last week, the Biden administration took the fight to Yemen, targeting launch sites. Once the dust settled, however, it appeared the U.S.-U.K. combined attack wasn’t that ambitious. It destroyed less than a third of the Houthi’s offensive capabilities, according to U.S. officials. Not enough to stop more attacks. But just enough to encourage the Houthis to up the ante.
It’s a miracle there have been no mass casualties, so far. It’s a testament to our armed forces, especially our Navy. But sooner or later, a missile will get through our defenses and hit its target and sink a ship. There will be large-scale American and allied casualties.
We will then be at war – the very war the Biden administration has been at great pains to avoid.
On and off for 45 years, American presidents have tried to prod Iran into pursuing peace with its neighbors. But peace in the Middle East was never Iran’s plan.
Since the mullahs took over the country in 1979, their goal has never wavered. They want to wipe Israel off the face of the earth and push the United States out of the Middle East.
When Biden came into office, he inherited a relatively peaceful Middle East. Trump’s sanctions and low oil prices had cut Iran’s revenues in half.
The assassination of Qassem Soleimani and other senior Iranian military officials was a major setback for Iran’s terrorist and proxy operations. The Arab-Israeli Abraham Accords left Iran isolated. By 2020, Iran was on the ropes.
In his zeal to do the opposite of everything Trump did, Biden became Iran’s great enabler. Biden’s war on American fossil fuels doubled, and occasionally tripled, the historically low oil prices of the Trump years. Biden’s failure to enforce Trump-era sanctions allowed Iran to sell oil.
Biden paid Iran ransom for American hostages and unfroze funds. By some estimates, Iran is $100 billion richer than it would have been if Trump’s policies had remained in place. Predictably, Iran used its windfall profits to unleash its proxies and attack Israel, the U.S. and our allies.
If we are to avoid getting dragged into a larger war, the United States needs to reestablish deterrence, and fast.
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First, let Iran and their proxies know if they kill Americans, they die. Don’t wait for incoming missiles to get right up to our ships before shooting them down. We have the technology to identify where the drones and missiles are coming from. We know where Houthi warships dock. If they launch against American or allied ships, immediately destroy the sites.
That’s what Trump did in the early days of his administration, when Syrian planes attacked their own people with chemical weapons. Trump didn’t threaten or wring his hands, he destroyed the Syrian airfields. A larger war was avoided. We didn’t hear from the Syrians for years.
That’s also what President Ronald Reagan did in the 1980s. When Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz and nearly sank an American warship in international waters, Reagan retaliated by destroying Iran’s minelaying ships and port. A larger war was avoided. We didn’t hear from Iran for decades.
Second, target Iran’s economy. Reinforce the sanctions. Drive down the price of oil by unleashing American energy production. Wars are expensive. If Iran’s oil revenues are cut in half, it won’t have the money to fund terrorist proxies.
Finally, let Israel finish the job of destroying Hamas. Let Iran know that the United States – working with our allies – will not tolerate Iranian aggression.
These last few years have been heady ones for Iran. It’s time to reestablish deterrence. If not, we could soon find ourselves dragged into another forever war in the Middle East – a war which we don’t want, which we’re not prepared to fight and which could have been avoided.
