Former President Donald Trump continues to lead the pack in the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday, but his lead has dropped by a few percentage points since December.
The poll also showed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has moved into second place, ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the first time in the Iowa Poll. The survey of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers found 48% pick Trump as their first choice candidate, followed by Haley at 20% and DeSantis at 16%.
Trump and DeSantis both fell by 3 percentage points from the December poll, when the former president led with 51%. Haley was one of two candidates whose numbers rose in the poll, rising by 4 percentage points. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy was the first choice for 8% of likely caucusgoers in January, compared to 5% in December.
A majority of the GOP caucusgoers polled, 68%, said their minds were made up, while a quarter said they could still be persuaded. That percentage is much higher for Trump supporters at 82% whose minds are made up. For Haley, 63% of those who picked her as their first choice are committed to supporting her caucus night; 64% of DeSantis’ supporters say their minds are made up.
Though top-line results showed a positive shift for Haley in Iowa, she still trails the frontrunner, Trump, by double digits. She also may face problems with enthusiasm: a majority, 49%, of Haley supporters said they are only “mildly enthusiastic” to caucus for her, compared to 49% of Trump supporters who said they are “extremely enthusiastic,” and 39% who said they are “very enthusiastic.” Only 9% of respondents who said Haley was their top pick said they were “extremely enthusiastic,” and 30% “very enthusiastic.”
DeSantis’ enthusiasm grew from the December poll, with 23% who said they are “extremely enthusiastic” to support him on caucus night, up 7 percentage points from the previous poll.
Haley’s base of supporters in Iowa also looks different than her competitors. Thirty-nine percent of likely Republican caucusgoers who plan to support her identify as independents, and 11% identify as Democrats. In comparison, 78% of both Trump and DeSantis supporters identify as Republicans, and just 1% identify as Democrats.
Trump still holds an overall lead with independents who plan to attend the Republican caucuses at 37%. Haley has the support of 33% of independents, followed by DeSantis at 14% and Ramaswamy with 5%.
Issues like enthusiasm could play a decisive role in the Jan. 15 Republican caucuses. Participants are required to attend in person at 7 p.m. on caucus night in order to express their presidential preference. With temperatures predicted between -1 and -7 degrees Fahrenheit and the possibility of more snow, Iowa Republicans say there could be lower turnout than previously expected.
Though blizzards and dangerous wind chill have created hazardous travel conditions across Iowa, presidential candidates are still holding events in the final days before caucus night and encouraging Iowans to participate despite the winter weather on Monday. DeSantis urged supporters to “brave the elements” and bring their friends and family to caucus at a Saturday event in West Des Moines.
Haley urged Iowans at Saturday events to attend the caucuses and “set the tone” for the rest of the nominating cycle, according to the Huffington Post. The former South Carolina governor has said that while she hopes for a “good showing” on caucus night, that she hopes to take on Trump for the top position in New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina.
Trump, who canceled three of his four Iowa events planned for the weekend, said at a livestreamed town hall in Des Moines Saturday that while the weather is not favorable, he knows his supporters will “walk over glass” to help him return to the White House. While he has a large lead, he said showing up to caucus is important to “send the message, most importantly, for November” that he can win against President Joe Biden.
“Especially with weather like this, you just have to get out,” Trump said.
The Iowa Poll of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-12 by the polling firm Selzer & Co. headed by J. Ann Selzer. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
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