Americans living to 100 or older projected to quadruple in next three decades
The number of Americans living to 100 and older is expected to quadruple over the next three decades, according to projections from the U.S. Census Bureau.
“This year the Census Bureau estimates there are about 101,000 centenarians living across the United States,” said Katherine Schaeffer, research analyst at the Pew Research Center.
“It is still pretty rare, but it is becoming far less rare.”
Today, centenarians make up 0.03% of the overall U.S. population and are expected to reach 0.1% in 2054.
Schaeffer said the number of people in their 100s in the U.S. has ticked up steadily since 1950.
Life expectancies have increased in the U.S. and around the world, Schaeffer said. “Health care has improved over the last few decades, so that it’s possible for people to have a higher quality of life for longer.”
“The vast majority of centenarians in the United States are women,” Schaeffer said. “About eight in 10.”
And most of those currently living in their hundreds in the U.S. are white: “77% of centenarians are white.
“Far fewer are Black (8%), Asian (7%) or Hispanic (6%). And 1% or fewer are multiracial; American Indian or Alaska Native; or Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander,” according to Schaeffer.
What is projected to change over three decades
The Census Bureau’s projection of quadrupling the centenarian population isn’t guaranteed, Schaeffer said. “We don’t have a crystal ball where we can see for sure.”
In general, America will be getting older in the next 30 years.
“People 65 and older are going to make up a larger percentage of the U.S. population, increasingly,” Schaeffer said. “Age 65 will make up close to a quarter of the population.”
And the number of people living into their hundreds will be included in that trend.
“In about 30 years, centenarians will make up a larger number of Americans, and they will also make up a larger percentage of the population,” she said.
The disproportionate number of white females will also become slightly less stark.
“In 30 years, women are expected to make up 68% of those ages 100 and older, while 32% will be men,” said Schaeffer, and whites are projected to account for 72% of centenarians.