With “Barbie,” the nomination leader and the other half of Barbenheimer over on the comedy side, “Oppenheimer” is expected to emerge as the biggest drama winner at Sunday’s Golden Globe Awards ceremony. The Christopher Nolan blockbuster is the odds-on favorite to prevail in four of its eight categories, including Best Drama Film. It’s also predicted to win Best Director for Nolan, Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr. and Best Original Score for Ludwig Göransson.
Excluding “La La Land” (2016), which won all seven awards for which it was nominated, “Oppenheimer” would be just the seventh film this century to win four awards in a single night. In fact, no film during this timeframe besides “La La Land” has won more than four. The now-disbanded Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s penchant for spreading the wealth has meant that most films typically max out at three awards — “The Banshees of Inisherin” grabbed three trophies last year, as did “The Power of the Dog” and “West Side Story” the year prior during the untelevised ceremony.
Coincidentally, the six films that have won four awards have all been dramas. All of them, naturally, won the top award and most of these instances occurred in the 2000s: “A Beautiful Mind” (2001), “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003), “Brokeback Mountain” (2005), “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), “The Social Network” (2010) and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017). Of these, “A Beautiful Mind,” “The Lord of the Rings” and “Slumdog Millionaire” went on to win Best Picture at he Oscars.
“Oppenheimer,” the Oscar favorite, leads the Best Drama Film odds by a wild margin — it sits at 17/5 while No. 2 “Killers of the Flower Moon,” with seven Globe bids, is at 39/10. “Maestro” (four noms) and “Past Lives” (five noms) are tied at 11/2, followed by “Anatomy of a Fall” (four noms) at 13/2 and “The Zone of Interest” (three noms) at 7/1. By nearly every measure — nominations, box office, cultural phenomenon — “Oppenheimer” is the biggest film of this group. It’s also the only one of this sextet to be up for the Globes’ new Cinematic and Box Office Achievement category, where it’s in third place, as it inches towards $1 billion worldwide.
SEE Golden Globe nominations: ‘Barbie’ and ‘Succession’ lead with 9
Now, the Globes could go their own way and award something else, like when they went with the Globes-y pick of “Atonement” (2007) over “No Country for Old Men,” but it’s important to remember that that was the old Globes, the HFPA that no longer exists that had about 90 members, meaning it would take fewer votes to trigger an upset. As part of its reform, the Globes now boasts 300 voting members, which favors consensus. That also bodes well for Nolan and Göransson, who’ve been favorites since the film opened and have dominated critics awards thus far.
Downey has also been tipped to triumph since July, and while he’s also way out in front at 71/20, would anyone be shocked if Ryan Gosling, in second at 4/1, snatched the win for “Barbie”? You can argue he should be a lot closer, odds-wise, than he is, and the race does feel like it’s between them, with Charles Melton, in third, as a dark horse for “May December.” Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”), Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”) round out the list.
“Oppenheimer” is more of a long shot in Best Supporting Actress and Best Screenplay (Emily Blunt and Nolan’s script are both in third), but it could add another win in Best Drama Actor for Cillian Murphy, who’s dominated the critics awards. Or perhaps RDJ will lose and “Oppenheimer” will pick up its acting win here. Murphy’s in second place at 37/10 to “Maestro’s” Bradley Cooper at 7/2, while everyone else — Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”) and Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn”) — are well behind. Cooper has been widely predicted for Oscar glory since “Maestro” was dated for 2023, but we’ve seen this film before and we know the ending. His directorial debut “A Star Is Born” was expected to have a big Globes night in 2019 en route to Oscar success, but it lost every category except Best Original Song. Though he had dropped from the top spot by the time of the ceremony, Cooper was an early favorite to win Best Drama Actor but fell to Rami Malek for “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which upset “A Star Is Born” for Best Drama Film while being dead last in the odds.
In other words, Cooper lost to the lead actor of one of the biggest and most popular films of the year. Fittingly, “Oppenheimer” dethroned “Bohemian Rhapsody” as the highest-grossing biopic of all time in September. “Maestro,” meanwhile, has not been as well received by audiences — and especially not as well as “A Star Is Born” was. That may ultimately be irrelevant, but, again, with the larger voting body, the person in the bigger and more liked film might just come out on top.
If “Oppenheimer” pulls off a Murphy win in addition to a Downey win, that would put it in the rarefied air of five Golden Globe victories. But it’s a new Golden Globes, so anything’s possible? The major category “Oppenheimer” cannot win is Best Drama Actress since, you know, it doesn’t have one. That is where “Killers of the Flower Moon” is expected to get on the board with a win for Lily Gladstone. While some have questioned her lead campaign, it’s been bearing fruit as she’s also led critics prizes. Gladstone has quickly become the place to award the Martin Scorsese epic and has an appealing rooting factor as well. Trailing her in second is “Anatomy of a Fall’s” Sandra Hüller, who’s definitely in the hunt but likely would have a greater shot to pull an Isabelle Huppert-esque upset with a smaller voting body. A win for Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Greta Lee (“Past Lives”), Annette Bening (“Nyad”) or Cailee Spaeny (“Priscilla”) would qualify has a greater upset. If Cooper takes Best Drama Actor, it’s less likely Mulligan would prevail as well since no drama lead duo has accomplished that since Jon Voight and Jane Fonda for “Coming Home” (1978).
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