As the Atlanta Falcons gear up to visit Chicago in December, they’re not just confronting the chilly outdoor environment but also facing a formidable opponent in the Bears. The Bears’ run defense has significantly strengthened from previous years, posing a unique challenge for the Falcons’ game plan, particularly in their use of running back Bijan Robinson.
The Bears rank impressively at No. 4 in the league in yards per carry allowed, giving up a mere 3.6 yards on early-down runs by running backs. Their defense also shines with a No. 5 ranking in success rate and No. 6 in EPA per attempt against running back runs. This remarkable improvement marks them as a top-five defense in this area.
However, it’s a different story when it comes to defending against running back passes. Here, the Bears show a significant vulnerability, ranking as one of the worst in the NFL. They allow an alarming 7.5 yards per target to running backs, placing them at the bottom of the league standings. Additionally, their No. 31 rank in EPA per target and No. 24 in success rate against running back passes highlight a critical weakness.
Given these statistics, Arthur Smith, the Falcons’ head coach, must rethink his strategy. The Bears are particularly susceptible to running back passes, even more so than wide receiver passes. While they maintain a decent overall pass defense, their struggle against running backs in the receiving game is evident.
For the Falcons to stand a chance in this matchup, leveraging Robinson as a receiver out of the backfield is crucial. His skill set could exploit the Bears’ defensive gap, especially considering the intriguing betting odds. Robinson’s receiving props are set at 3.5 receptions and 22.5 receiving yards, both offering potential value for bettors.
While the Chicago Bears present a robust defense against running back runs, their vulnerability against running back passes could be the key for the Atlanta Falcons to unlock a victory. The effective use of Bijan Robinson in a dual role could be the deciding factor in this intriguing NFL showdown.
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