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Below are our best bets and picks for Week 17 of the NFL season.
I’ll keep this straightforward: These division rivals met just two weeks ago and the Texans won by three points. Now they’re home and have rookie quarterback sensation C.J. Stroud back under center. Those two factors are worth much more than a measly half-point. Texans win big and keep their playoff aspirations alive in front of the home crowd in Houston.
Sure, the Atlanta Falcons are still in the thick of that brutal NFC South race, just one game out of first place. But guess what? The Bears are still alive for a wild-card spot themselves. O.K., NFL.com is giving Chicago just a 1% chance to make the playoffs. Still, the Bears have quietly been playing good football. They’ve won three of their last four games and four straight at home. The defense, which leads the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed, has given up an average of 14.8 points over the last four games. Atlanta, meanwhile, has scored a mere 13.6 points per game in seven road contests. If the Bears score 20, they’ll get the cover.
The Denver Broncos are in tank mode, benching Russell Wilson for Jarrett Stidham. Courtland Sutton is in concussion protocol, and even with a soft matchup vs. the Chargers, I can’t see Denver dominating. The Chargers held Buffalo to only 24 points last week and nearly pulled off an upset. I’ll take the +5.5 for Los Angeles to make this interesting.
The Chiefs are an offensive disaster at the moment, and frankly have been for much of the season. They lead the league in drops and have not been able to score 20 points in nearly half their games, despite the presence of Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco. The Bengals are without Joe Burrow and the defense has been a sieve, but with Cincinnati’s playoff hopes on the line, expect its best effort. More importantly, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is a wizard who knows the Chiefs well. He’s going to give Kansas City all it can handle. Even if Mahomes and Co. win, it won’t be a blowout, and there’s a real chance the Bengals steal this one.
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
The Buccaneers are hot heading into Sunday’s game against the Saints, and they have a chance to clinch their third straight NFC South title with a win. Tampa Bay has won four in a row and its last three against New Orleans, including a 26–9 victory in the Big Easy earlier in the season. The Bucs are tied for the best record against the spread in the NFL at 10–5, so covering at home by less than a field goal is not a big ask. Plus, Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are set up for a big day against the Saints’ secondary with cornerback Marshon Lattimore on injured reserve.
The Bears have been playing great defense of late, and Justin Fields is motivated to perform well with all the rumors of the Bears taking a quarterback at the top of next year’s draft. The Falcons have an underrated defense, but their offense is less than stellar and it’ll struggle to produce in Chicago. With a low spread, I’ll take the Bears to win by at least a field goal.
I’ll gladly take the points for a Raiders squad that’s surging under interim coach Antonio Pierce. Shane Steichen’s Colts are tough at home, but they gotta worry about one of the best defenses in the league—yes, it’s time to acknowledge Maxx Crosby & Co. among the best. Las Vegas has scored multiple defensive touchdowns in back-to-back games against the Chiefs and Chargers. Also, the Raiders have had a standout rushing attack ever since Pierce took over as the coach.
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