The NHL season has reached an inflection point as teams pause for the holiday break. Which teams are undervalued in the Stanley Cup futures betting market?
We have reached one of the key inflection points of the hockey season. The NHL is one of the only leagues in the world to shutter teams out for a holiday reprieve, with no games being played between December 23 and December 27. That makes it a perfect time to reassess the futures market and determine which teams are undervalued in long-term portfolios.
We’re focusing our attention on the Stanley Cup board, highlighting three teams that are better than their odds imply.
The window on the Pittsburgh Penguins dynasty hasn’t officially shut. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are showing they have plenty left in the tank as they try to conclude their careers with one last Stanley Cup.
Although success has ebbed and flowed early in 2023-24, the Pens remain a top analytics team. Thanks to above-average possession and production metrics, they have compiled the tenth-best expected goals-for rating.
Goaltending has been up to snuff, but we’re anticipating a surge in Penguins’ scoring over the next few months. Collectively, Pittsburgh players have combined for the seventh-worst shooting percentage at five-on-five, a stark contrast to their offensive production.
The Penguins have attempted the seventh-most scoring and sixth-most high-danger opportunities this season, yielding the fifth-highest expected goals-for. Still, they are operating well beneath that, ranking 21st in actual goals-for.
The Metropolitan Division is wide open. Only seven points separate the second-ranked Philadelphia Flyers from the seventh-ranked Penguins. The dam gates should burst open, flooding the betting market with Pittsburgh money early in the new year. For the sake of closing line value, now is the time to buy.
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A true longshot, the Detroit Red Wings have to reverse course on a recent downturn. The Original Six franchise has dropped eight of their past ten, falling out of the Atlantic Division playoff picture. Nevertheless, we’ve seen the best they have to offer, and they could surprise a few teams come April if they can secure a playoff spot.
Detroit’s metrics have taken a hit recently, but they’ve fallen a long way from what we saw earlier in the campaign. From November 25 until December 24, the Red Wings were skating around with a diminished 45.8% expected goals-for rating. That’s nearly a 4.0% drop from the 49.4% benchmark they had set the month prior.
The Red Wings might not have earth-shattering metrics, but we have seen how well they can perform when everyone is on the same page. They wouldn’t be the first young team to get hot and go on a run, and if there’s one executive who can guide them there, it’s Steven Yzerman.
And if there’s one team worth taking a flyer on, it’s the Red Wings.
File this one under relative value, as the Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup price has fluctuated heavily through the season’s first two and a half months. Edmonton opened the season as one of the Cup favorites, falling as low as +1700 following an extended dry spell. Those odds are back on the upswing, only going higher as the Oilers continue their ascent.
An eight-game winning streak brought the Oilers back into the playoff conversation, but there’s still work to be done. Heading into 2024, Edmonton sits five points back of a wild card spot with two games in hand. That’s a manageable gap to close as they try to catch up with the perennial basement-dwelling Arizona Coyotes.
More importantly, the Oilers are still analytics darlings, putting together the second-ranked expected goals-for rating in the NHL. Moreover, their PDO implies they are progression candidates as their current benchmark of .980 is below the hypothetical average of 1.000.
Kris Knoblauch has helped this team find a new level of analytics success. Renewed optimism surrounds the Oilers, and their perceived value only goes up from here.
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