Ja Morant's buzzer-beater was only the second of this NBA season and that is way less than usual
During his first game back on the court after returning from a 25-game suspension, Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant hit a game-winning shot.
Even though Morant wasn’t surprised by his accomplishment in his return to action, there was another element of the moment that was shocking. This was only the second game-winning buzzer-beater made during the NBA season so far this season.
Just three days prior, Miami’s Jimmy Butler hit the only other buzzer-beater we have seen during the 2023-24 campaign. Based on how many games the NBA schedule has had so far, that means the league is on pace for around six buzzer-beaters this season.
That is significant according to the database at Basketball Reference, which tracks all of the shots made when the shooter’s team was tied or trailing and left no time on the clock after it went through.
| SEASON | BUZZER-BEATERS (ADJUSTED FOR 82 GAMES) |
| 2023-24 | 6.1 |
| 2022-23 | 17.0 |
| 2021-22 | 14.0 |
| 2020-21 | 11.4 |
| 2019-20 | 10.4 |
| 2018-19 | 18.0 |
| 2017-18 | 11.0 |
| 2016-15 | 19.0 |
| 2014-15 | 15.0 |
Based on this research, when adjusting for an 82-game season to account for the two seasons shortened by COVID-19, this season stands out as unique.
The last time that we have seen a season end with six or fewer buzzer-beaters was the lockout-shortened campaign in 2011-12. But even that season, when adjusted for 82 games, would equate to a higher rate of buzzer-beaters (7.4) than we have seen so far this season.
While this rate may change as we turn the calendar into the new year, perhaps buzzer-beaters may be increasingly less common. There isn’t a theory that immediately explains why but it’s worth monitoring as the year progresses.