"When you look back on 2008 — when US production was at a 62-year low, and exports were zero — it is a remarkable turnaround."
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The US is now history's biggest oil producer as output continues to surge to all-time levels, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Output of crude and condensate hit a new global record this quarter of 13.3 million barrels per day. That's part of a record 21.4 million barrels per day for total US liquids production.
"Not only is the United States producing more oil than any country in history, but the amount of oil (crude oil, refined products and natural gas liquids) that it is exporting is near the total production of Saudi Arabia or Russia." Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of research for oil market, energy and mobility, said in the report on Tuesday. "When you look back on 2008 — when US production was at a 62-year low, and exports were zero — it is a remarkable turnaround."
The rise is consistent with a broader surge in US production, which has accelerated through this year. Separate data from the Energy Information Agency showed in October that US crude output surged to a then-record high of 13.2 million barrels a day.
The prior record was 13.1 million barrels a day hit in February 2020, right before the COVID-19 pandemic slowed down the economy.
The strong output from US producers has offset OPEC+ production cuts this year that were meant to support slagging global oil prices.
Between surging outflows outside of OPEC and the group's self-imposed limits, S&P sees the oil market headed for a "new equilibrium" next year with Brent barrel prices ranging between $75 and $100 in 2024.
"OPEC+ supply management keeps prices from falling below a certain floor, at least for any significant amount of time," Burkhard added. "At the same time, prices remain high enough to support oil production growth outside of OPEC+, which in turn deters prices from surging too high."
Supply growth outside of OPEC+ will grow to 2.7 million bpd in 2024, surpassing global demand growth of 1.6 million bpd.
Booming US production has eroded OPEC's global market share, and some energy experts have predicted Saudi Arabia will flood the market with crude to gain back share.
"If prices stay high enough to sustain strong supply gains outside of OPEC+, then pressure rises on OPEC+ to cut more. Most of the time action is taken to support prices, but history shows that sometimes supply restraint and lost market share becomes an increasing burden," Burkhard said.
