It’s been a long week, Cavs fans. After three losses, including the most recent pair to East leading Celtics, Cavs fans got turds in their stockings this week when we found out that Darius Garland will be out “several weeks,” due to a fractured jaw, while Evan Mobley will miss “six to eight weeks” to have arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. I know it sucks for this season, but long term, these turds stockings have a silver lining.
In the NBA, you want to either be really good, or really bad. As currently constructed, the Cavs were neither. The Cavs’ 13-12 record is a pretty accurate reflection of where they are as a team right now. They’re a team capable of playing transcendent basketball about once every ten games (the wins over the Nuggets and Sixers being examples) and good enough to beat decent teams battling injuries, but they struggle to summon consistent effort from quarter to quarter.
The Cavs’ second loss to the Celtics on Thursday, was one such affair, where the effort started waning in the second quarter, as Boston put up a 7-0 run and eventually went up by 14. The Cavs, as they are wont to do, battled back to within three in the early fourth, but I don’t think anyone watching thought they had a chance. The Cavs simply don’t have enough front court depth to compete with Boston, especially when JB stops trusting Dean Wade (only 15 minutes) and plays Okoro or Niang instead.
It’s not that Wade is great, but it’s impossible to understand how poorly Okoro and Niang are playing right now. Canceled comic book series “Ice and the Minivan” are in the 19th and 30th percentile in the NBA in Estimated Plus Minus, while Wade is 55th – at least replacement level. While all three stink at offense, at least Wade can play at a level where you’re not hemorrhaging points every time he’s on the floor. It’s just a slow bleed.
Compounding this: JB’s refusal to play Craig Porter Jr. over the last week. In the first Celtics game, it was completely obvious the Cavs were going to have to Survive the Niang and Okoro minutes, and with Allen and Wade battling foul trouble that would be hard. But the Cavs offense is just too easy to defend when there’s only one playmaker on the floor. Lineups that did not feature two of Garland, Mitchell, or LeVert got destroyed. It’s simply too easy to load up on one of those guys defensively when there isn’t someone else on the floor defense cares about that can punish the double team. Both Niang and Okoro fail miserably at this: Okoro because he can’t shoot and has zero offensive confidence and Niang because he’s such a slow shooter he’s easy to guard. Teams bait him into putting the ball on the floor to produce wretched offensive outcomes.
In the Tuesday Celtics matchup, Okoro bled almost a point every sixty seconds while Niang bled about .6 points in 23 excruciating minutes. Similar results in Monday’s Orlando game when Niang went 0-10 in 23 minutes (with a +1 on the night), while Okoro was unplayably bad: -21 and 0-4 in a little over two quarter’s worth of work. This spoiled a 58 point outburst by Mitchell and Garland in which Tristan Thompson was the third leading scorer with 10 points.
Niang is who he is: a 10th man spot shooter who thrives on a team that commands a lot of double teams. His role right now is wildly outsized for his skill set. Now that teams have scouted and care about his 50-yo at the Y dribble drive floaters, they’ve been completely shut down. Okoro will never get better, at least not on this team with this coach. Dude needs a change of scenery to a place he’s not the teacher’s pet desperately
#Cavs entered this Eastern Conference gauntlet with a desire to see how they stack up with some of the elite. It's become evident. Right now, Cleveland isn't on that level — and it's fair to wonder if it will ever get therehttps://t.co/uqDmHrr46G
— Chris Fedor (@ChrisFedor) December 15, 2023
It's hard to diagnose the biggest issue for the #Cavs.
Sure, you can blame the coaching for the lack of preparation. You can also blame the players for the lack of effort.
No matter what, there isn't an easy fix. Cleveland has some soul-searching to do.https://t.co/HF4Dr8Oa2w
— Evan Dammarell (@AmNotEvan) December 15, 2023
By Thursday, Cavs media had Melancholy and the Infinite Sadness playing on repeat, with real Cavs beat reporters like Fedor and Dammarell calling this team mediocre. I was a little baffled when people started singing the blues after two games the Cavs had no shot at winning (in Boston where no one has this year), instead of after the eminently winnable Orlando game, but the media cycle ever grinds. The halcyon highs of the Cavs’ three game win stream against league worst Detroit, a Miami B squad, and an injured Magic crew were long forgotten. Then the damn broke on Friday with the news of Mobley the Younger’s and Garland’s extended injury absences. The takes across Cavsdom became increasingly hyperbolic. I’m here to tell you it’s all going to be ok.
Here’s why. These injuries take the pressure off. And It’s very clear the Cavs are struggling with the pressure of expectations. Yes, JB is a lousy offensive coach, but NBA offense is about confidence, and when you’re all up in your anxieties, as these Cavs clearly are, you can’t just relax and let it fly. Further, the Cavs weren’t winning anything this year anyway. It’s already completely clear that the Cavs’ offseason additions (that are playing) failed to address their rebounding woes and their bench shooting woes. They weren’t going to be able to compete with elite NBA teams in a playoff setting anyway, especially with this coach.
So the Cavs’ get a reset here. The pressure’s off. Everything that happens now is gravy. The Cavs will be forced to play Craig Porter Jr. and maybe convert his two-way into an NBA contract. Isaiah Mobley might actually get some run. Emoni Bates looks like a scoring machine in the G-League, with 25 ppg on 61TS%, but he’s getting ravaged on D with a -10 net rating. Who cares? Give him some run. See what he can do at the two. The Cavs’ need confidence.
These injuries might also force the Cavs to make some moves they wouldn’t have considered before: trading for a playable wing or big. Delon Wright would eat a lot of minutes at guard, and is a guy big enough and pass-first enough to play with Mitchell. He’s also an absolute ball thief. He doesn’t fit Washington’s long term plans at all. I’d trade him straight up for Okoro tomorrow.
The Cavs don’t have a lot in the trade hopper, which makes a trade to shore up the the team in the short and long terms difficult. Ideally, you’d do something like above for guys who solve immediate needs but are still playable after Garland and Mobley return, but all they really have is a handfull of future seconds the expiring contracts of Okoro ($8.9 mil), Rubio ($6.1 mil), Damian Jones'($2.5 mil), and Tristan Thompson ($2.0 mil). Rubio’s is interesting because he could theoretically be traded and then retire, coming off the books for the team he’s traded to. In fact, I’m guessing that’s the plan. But even then, the returns aren’t going to be great. Maybe they could finagle Wright, Luke Kenard, Landry Shamet, or McBuckets (who’d sadly be an upgrade). At this point, the Cavs need bodies who can make plays, shoot, or defend (which includes rebounding).
Cleveland has another looming question too: what do they do about Donovan Mitchell? Look, if Mitchell doesn’t sign an extension this summer, they have to trade him. Cleveland owns their pick this year, so a full on tank is an option. Make up an injury for DM, go get a lottery pick, and #Tankstrong. This would probably involve selling off some assets like Allen or LeVert and then rebuilding some in the summer. That’s a pretty tough sell if you’re trying to keep Spida. The Cavs could trade their lottery pick after drafting to try to bring in more ammo to keep Mitchell.
Or the Cavs could plan for Mitchell’s departure. It’s likely that the Cavs could get more value then when Mitchell could promise to help them out with a trade-and-extend. That would be a soft rebuild where they build around Mobley, Garland, and Strus.
Ideally, the Cavs opt for max optionality here: make a short term deal that doesn’t hurt their future (giving up Okoro at this point is a net positive), and see what an addition and the young guys can do for them. Start scouting the New York squads to see who you want to trade for Mitchell (if it comes to that). Play CPJ significant minutes in Garland’s absence, and see what happens.
You could look at Mobley and Garland missing the easiest part of the Cavs’ schedule as a curse, cause they’ll have a harder time banking wins, or you could look at is as a blessing: they play Washington three times. If they stink, great. It gives you an excuse to fire JB. If they look like they can be competitive, then great. Grind for a playoff spot, and if they can’t get to the second round or look like they belong there, move on from JB.
Big extension for Mobley in the off-season and then see what happens with Mitch. I’m not happy, but I’m at least hopeful. The injuries forced the Cavs to do something different, because what they were doing wasn’t working or going to work, and there’s nothing worse than continuing to drive down a path you know is doomed. That’s why the Cavs played long stretches with no energy: the monotony of mediocrity. The young bloods will bring some juice, and at least now we get some scenery.
