After soaring airfare costs in recent years, 2024 may be kinder to travelers' wallets – especially in select U.S. cities, according to a new study.
(NEXSTAR) – After soaring airfare costs in recent years, 2024 may be kinder to travelers' wallets – especially in select U.S. cities, according to a new study.
According to Kayak's 2024 travel report released in November, "domestic airfare will drop 16% in 2024 compared to 2023," with the cost of renting a car (14%) or booking a hotel (10%) falling as well.
Analysts at Kayak compared customer searches between mid-March and mid-September of 2022 for travel in 2023, with the same time period in 2023 for flights in 2024.
“A combination of historically high prices last year combined with skyrocketing international travel demand could be forcing airlines to cut domestic costs, leading to more savings on your domestic travel," Kayak's Chief Economist Jake Bouvrie told Nexstar in a statement. "With domestic prices down across the board for flights, hotels and rental cars, if budget is a priority, 2024 may be a great year to explore right here in the United States.”
In November, domestic airfare was over 12% cheaper on average than the same time in 2022, according to Bureau of Labor statistics, but that number is far lower for certain destination cities in the U.S., Kayak found.
At the top of the bargain list is Philadelphia, which saw a year-over-year decrease of 39% in the average cost, followed by Fairbanks, Alaska at 37% and Minneapolis at 34%.
| Rank | City | Average decrease (year-over-year) |
| 1. | Philadelphia, Pa. | 39% |
| 2. | Fairbanks, Alaska | 37% |
| 3. | Minneapolis, Minn. | 34% |
| 4. | Anchorage, Alaska | 32% |
| 5. | Sacramento, Calif. | 30% |
| 6. | Tucson, Ariz. | 29% |
| 7. | Seattle, Wash. | 29% |
| 8. | Nashville, Tenn. | 28% |
| 9. | Pensacola, Fla. | 26% |
| 10. | Portland, Ore. | 25% |
If you're thinking about booking an international flight, the outlook is less encouraging for travelers hoping to score a deal – Kayak says international airfare is up 10% year over year.
To minimize flight costs, Kayak data shows that booking eight months in advance is the sweet spot, with average savings of between 8 and 18%.
Earlier this month, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) raised its projected net profit margin to 2.7%, or $25.7 billion. The industry is also projecting an historic number of air travelers in 2024 – 4.7 billion, which exceeds 2019's pre-pandemic total of 4.5 billion.
Despite the projection, the high cost of borrowing money and limited capacity will make growth more difficult, according to the IATA.
"Considering the major losses of recent years, the $25.7 billion net profit expected in 2024 is a tribute to aviation’s resilience," said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. "People love to travel and that has helped airlines to come roaring back to pre-pandemic levels of connectivity. The speed of the recovery has been extraordinary; yet it also appears that the pandemic has cost aviation about four years of growth. From 2024 the outlook indicates that we can expect more normal growth patterns for both passenger and cargo."
