Mark my words, J.A. Bayona‘s “Society of the Snow” may exceed everyone’s expectations at this year’s Oscars. The breathtaking survival drama is poised to become Spain’s 21st film nominated for Best International Feature, but also look out for it across the board alongside other buzzworthy contenders like Jonathan Glazer‘s “The Zone of Interest” and Justine Triet‘s “Anatomy of a Fall.” Nobody should be too shocked if it winds up also making the cut for its score, sound, visual effects and makeup/hairstyling in addition to possible director and screenplay nominations. And it would deserve every single one.
Can a foreign-language film (or perhaps, two or three foreign language films) really shake up the Oscar status quo this year? If you answered anything but a resounding “yes, yes, a thousand times, yes,” then where have you been for the last few years?
SEE Michael Giacchino interview: ‘Society of the Snow’ composer
“Society of the Snow” (“La sociedad de la nieve”) is the acclaimed Spanish helmer’s fifth feature (“The Orphanage,” “The Impossible,” “A Monster Calls” and “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom”), which he co-wrote with Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques and Nicolás Casariego, adapted from the book of the same name by Pablo Vierci. The survival drama is based on the incredible true story of the 1972 crash of Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571, which had been chartered to fly a rugby team to nearby Chile. After the plane crashes in the heart of the hostile Andes Mountains, the remaining survivors infamously resorted to extreme measures to stay alive, with only 16 of the flight’s 45 passengers surviving the ordeal until they were rescued a harrowing 72 days later.
The film is Spain’s selection for Best International Feature at the 2024 Oscars, and is one of the frontrunners to score a spot in the soon-to-be-revealed shortlist (Dec. 21) and ultimately a nomination in that category, competing against other high profile contenders like “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom), “The Taste of Things” (France), “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany), “Perfect Days” (Japan), “Fallen Leaves” (Finland), “Io capitano” (Italy), “Tótem” (Mexico), “The Promised Land” (Denmark), “Four Daughters” (Tunisia), “The Delinquents” (Argentina) and “Shayda” (Australia).
SEE J.A. Bayona interview: ‘Society of the Snow’ co-writer and director
But can “Society of the Snow” exceed expectations like other recent breakout international features and break into other categories? If the last few years are any indication, the answer has to be “yes.” Last year, Netflix stablemate “All Quiet on the Western Front” amassed an impressive nine Oscar nominations (second only to “Everything Everywhere All at Once” with 11 nominations), including Best Picture, and it won four: Best International Feature, Best Cinematography, Best Score and Best Production Design. That tied the Edward Berger-directed war epic with “Fanny and Alexander” (1982), “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”(2000) and “Parasite” (2019) as the most-awarded foreign language film in Oscar history.
In 2022, Japanese drama “Drive My Car” broke out of the Best International Feature race (which it won) with 3 additional nominations — for director Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Best Adapted Screenplay for Hamaguchi and co-screenwriter Takamasa Oe, also becoming the first Japanese film to receive a Best Picture nomination. That year also saw Pedro Almodovar‘s Spanish drama “Parallel Mothers,” which wasn’t even in the running for Best International Feature, up for Best Actress (Penelope Cruz) and Best Score, with Norwegian Best International Feature nominee “The Worst Person in the World” also garnering a Best Original Screenplay nomination.
The list goes on and on. In 2021, Korean-language feature “Minari” (not eligible in Best International Feature because of its U.S. origin) scored six nominations including for Best Picture, and Danish Best International Feature winner “Another Round” scored a nomination for director Thomas Vinterberg. In 2018, another Netflix masterpiece, Alfonso Cuaron‘s “Roma,” scored 10 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. It won three — Best Cinematography, Best International Feature (the first Mexican entry to do so) and Best Director (the first foreign-language film to win that category). That year also saw German film “Never Look Away,” a Best International Feature nominee, also score a surprise nomination for Best Cinematography.
You get the idea. So, where can Bayona’s haunting survival drama realistically make the most impact at the Oscars this year?
The Spanish helmer and his co-writers are an outside chance at director and screenplay nominations at this early stage, as are actors Rafael Federman and Enzo Vogrincic, who appear to be the standouts among the large ensemble of relative unknowns. D.P. Pedro Luque is currently sitting in Gold Derby’s top 20 according to our combined odds for cinematography, and production designer Alain Bainée is just outside our top 20 as well.
However, the most likely contender at this stage is Oscar-winning composer Michael Giacchino (“Up”), who’s in eleventh position in our odds. Giacchino has already won Best Original Score – Independent Film at this year’s Hollywood Music in Media Awards for his gorgeous work on the film, and if he lands in the Oscar shortlist next week, he could be a strong contender. Right behind him are the makeup and hairstyling team of Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver and Montse Ribé (currently at fifteenth in our odds), the sound team of Jorge Adrados, Oriol Tarragó and Marc Orts (at tenth in our odds) and the visual effects duo of Félix Bergés and Laura Pedro, who have already made the Oscar preliminary shortlist and await their fate as 20 films will go on to the next round of voting, with 10 films named on the final VFX shortlist on Dec. 21 along with nine other categories. Given that the film boasts some of the most breathtaking recreations of the doomed flight ever seen onscreen, they are unsurprisingly sitting pretty with 50/1 odds and in ninth position in our combined odds.
PREDICT the 2024 Oscar nominees
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
