Who will have the edge when AFC division leaders, the Ravens and Jaguars, meet Sunday night in Jacksonville?
The Ravens outlasted the Los Angeles Rams, 37-31, on an overtime punt return touchdown by unlikely hero Tylan Wallace. The Jaguars lost, 31-27, to the Cleveland Browns. Who will have the edge when these AFC division leaders meet Sunday night?
Lamar Jackson saved his best for last against the Rams, staring down pressure to make a pair of brilliant throws, one for a touchdown, the other for a 2-point conversion, in the last two minutes of regulation. Jackson threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns despite misfiring on several deep throws in damp conditions. One of the big plays he connected on was to wide-open tight end Isaiah Likely, who has caught nine passes for 123 yards in the Ravens’ two full games without Mark Andrews. Coordinator Todd Monken has used motion to capitalize on Likely’s acceleration to the outside, not replacing Andrews but giving the Ravens a different dimension. Odell Beckham Jr. said he ran the wrong route on a 46-yard touchdown catch against the Rams, but he made a beautiful adjustment to Jackson’s throw, showing why he’s perhaps the top deep threat on the team at age 31. Flowers, who leads the Ravens in targets, catches and receiving yards, was the man Jackson looked for in the clutch. The offensive line played one of its best games as well, containing All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald on the inside while veteran tackles Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses returned to form on the edges.
Jackson will try to maintain his production against a Jacksonville defense that has slipped from third in FTN Fantasy’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) over the first seven weeks to 17th over the past seven weeks. Former Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco shredded the Jaguars for 311 yards and three touchdowns in Cleveland’s victory last Sunday, and Cincinnati Bengals backup Jake Browning threw for 354 in beating Jacksonville the week before. The Jaguars blitz on an above-average 29% of dropbacks but have just 27 sacks to show for it. Josh Allen, their 2019 first-round pick, is responsible for half of those along with 24 quarterback hits and 13 tackles for loss, so containing him will be priority No. 1 for Stanley and Moses. Travon Walker, the first pick in the 2022 draft, is Jacksonville’s other threat from the edge, though he has yet to stand out consistently. Former Raven Darious Williams is easily the top player in the secondary with 19 passes defended. Jacksonville is vulnerable at the other corner, where starter Tyson Campbell is dealing with a quadriceps injury. The Jaguars have defended well on third down, less so in the red zone, where opponents have scored touchdowns on 56.4% of their possessions.
EDGE: Ravens
Trevor Lawrence started against the Browns, a week after he suffered a high-ankle sprain against Cincinnati. He completed just 28 of 50 passes with three interceptions against Cleveland’s elite defense but did rally the Jaguars for a pair of 75-yard touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. At his best, the 6-foot-6 Lawrence is mobile and accurate, qualities he showed in beating the Ravens last November. Lawrence lost one of his favorite targets when wide receiver Christian Kirk went on injured reserve, but he still has wide receiver Calvin Ridley (55 catches on 97 targets, 742 yards, five touchdowns) and tight end Evan Engram (84 catches on 103 targets, 701 yards, three touchdowns). As well as the Ravens have covered overall, they’re 12th in DVOA against tight ends, and they could be without safety Kyle Hamilton, who hurt his knee against the Rams, as a long, mobile option to blanket Engram. Hamilton did practice Wednesday with a brace on his left knee. Lawrence has taken 31 sacks, same as Jackson. With left tackle Cam Robinson on injured reserve and backup Walker Little dealing with a hamstring injury — he’s expected back this week — Lawrence will face the Ravens’ scary pass rush behind suboptimal protection. The Browns sacked him four times, hit him 12 times and knocked away 10 passes.
The Ravens lead the league with 49 sacks despite ranking 23rd in blitz rate. Defensive tackle Justin Madubuike is an every-week terror coming off a six-pressure star turn against the Rams. Outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy also delivered one of his best games of the season with five pressures. The Ravens allow just 4.4. yards per pass attempt in part because they keep quarterbacks guessing; 15 defenders have at least one sack in coordinator Mike Macdonald’s ever-shifting rush designs. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 294 yards and three scores because he trusted wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to make exceptional catches on daring attempts against pressure. Lawrence will have to play with similar confidence to give his team a chance. The Rams also took advantage of Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey in his first game back from a calf injury, but Ravens coach John Harbaugh said Humphrey is the least of his concerns. The possible absence of Hamilton, the Ravens’ most versatile defender, would be a greater worry.
EDGE: Ravens
The Ravens played from behind more than usual against the Rams, so they attempted just 26 runs, down from their season average of 32. They rolled up 139 yards thanks to Jackson’s wizardly scrambles and an efficient game from rookie Keaton Mitchell, who’s averaging a remarkable 8.5 yards per carry. They might have liked to use Mitchell more, but they trust Justice Hill as a pass blocker. Gus Edwards carried just six times for 15 yards against the Rams and is averaging a career-low 4.1 yards per carry despite his excellent work near the goal line. The Ravens lead the league in rushing and rank second in yards per carry.
They’ll try to pump up those numbers against a Jaguars defense that has defended the run well at times but gave up 156 rushing yards to the Bengals and 144 in a blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Jacksonville has one of the league’s best inside linebacker duos in Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun, who could be headed for the Pro Bowl with 138 tackles (eight for loss). The Jaguars did a solid job against the Ravens’ backs last season but had no answer for Jackson, who carried 14 times for 89 yards in that 28-27 loss.
EDGE: Ravens
The Jaguars have not run efficiently, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and ranking 24th in rush DVOA. Travis Etienne (806 yards, nine touchdowns) is their top option, but he’s averaging 3.7 yards per carry, down from 5.1 his rookie season. Though Lawrence is a threat to run, he has dialed back his attempts over the past six games and will likely try to protect his ankle.
Despite their struggles on the ground, look for Jacksonville to run at the Ravens early, a strategy that worked for the Rams. Though Macdonald’s defense adjusted in the second half, it still gave up 128 yards on 30 carries for the game. Inside linebackers Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith played well, but the Ravens need sturdier work against the run from interior linemen Michael Pierce, Travis Jones and Broderick Washington.
EDGE: Ravens
The Ravens vaulted from 16th to fifth in special teams DVOA thanks to Wallace’s magnificent 76-yard return, three made field goals by Justin Tucker in the rain and sound coverage against the Rams’ bumbling units. It was the best performance of the season for coordinator Chris Horton’s crew. Wallace will continue to field punts now that Devin Duvernay is on injured reserve, while Hill will likely take kickoffs.
Jacksonville ranks ninth in special teams DVOA because of outstanding punt coverage and a solid season from kicker Brandon McManus, who has made 24 of 28 field goal attempts, including 5 of 7 from 50 yards or beyond. The Jaguars also have a pair of above-average returners in Jamal Agnew, whom they just designated for return from injured reserve, and rookie Parker Washington.
EDGE: Even
The Ravens have put themselves in position to claim the AFC’s No. 1 seed by winning seven of their past eight games. Wallace’s punt return against the Rams led to their most euphoric celebration of the season. Will those good vibes carry forward for a team that now sees itself as an inner-circle contender? The Ravens are 5-1 on the road this year and won’t overlook the Jaguars, who upset them in Jacksonville a year ago.
The Jaguars have not enjoyed their tour of the AFC North, dropping close games to the Bengals and Browns to fall out of the top spot in the conference. They’re seeking a second consecutive playoff berth under coach Doug Pederson but need to watch out for the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts, lurking one game back in the AFC South. The Jaguars are just 3-4 at home, with double-digit losses to the Texans and 49ers.
EDGE: Ravens
Will Lawrence make fewer mistakes against the Ravens’ pressure than he did last weekend against the Browns? If not, it’s difficult to see where the Jaguars have a matchup advantage against the Ravens, who have been a better all-around team for the last two months. Jackson simply has more ways to win against a slumping Jacksonville defense. Ravens 30, Jaguars 24
