THE UFC is set to close out the year with one of its biggest and most exciting cards of 2023.
On Saturday, December 16th, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Leon Edwards will put his UFC Welterweight Title on the line against Colby Covington, while Alexandre Pantoja will defend his Flyweight Championship against Brandon Royval.
Scouse fighting sensation Paddy Pimblett will also be fighting in Nevada, putting his unbeaten record on the line against UFC veteran Tony Ferguson. Let’s explore how the bookies think these fights will likely play out.
Leon Edwards is the narrow favourite for Saturday’s fight, with most pundits backing a narrow win for the defending champion. Edwards is available at 4/6 with Sky Bet, with Colby Covington at 6/5.
Alexandre Pantoja is also backed to retain his belt on Saturday night, with the champion priced at 4/7 with bet365, with Brandon Royval at 6/5.
British viewers will have their eyes on Paddy ‘The Baddy’ Pimblett on Saturday, and he is expected to secure the win over Tony Ferguson, with Parimatch pricing him at 1/3 and his opponent at 9/4.
Leon Edwards comes into Saturday’s fight having won 11 of his last 12 fights, with his only blemish being a stopped fight with Belal Muhammad due to an accidental eye poke. His last fight took place in March this year, where he secured a majority decision victory over Kamaru Usman. This was his second successive victory over Usman. His first was an incredible KO victory to win the title in 2022, in a fight that many consider to be one of the greatest comeback wins in UFC history.
Colby Covington’s last fight was in March 2022. The outspoken fighter is currently ranked #3 in the welterweight division, with some pundits questioning why he has been granted a title shot and many seeing it as his last chance to win the Welterweight Championship. His last fight saw him defeat Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision at UFC 272. Prior to this, he was defeated by Kamaru Usman in a title bout, losing by decision.
UFC 296’s main event between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington promises to be an exciting encounter. With the odds being so tight in the wins market, we have taken a look at three of the best value bets you can place on the fight:
Leon Edwards is coming into Saturday’s fight in the form of his life. The champ has secured back-to-back wins against Kamara Usman and will feel confident stepping into the Octagon at the weekend.
Covington has been inactive for over 18 months, and Edwards will view the fight as a way to make a statement heading into 2024. You can get him to secure the KO/TKO victory at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
Bet on Edwards to win by KO/TKO at 4/1 with Sky Bet
Colby Covington has been inactive in the UFC for over 18 months and has only had three fights since 2019.
Given the form of Edwards, there are understandably some questions regarding Covington’s performance levels going into the fight. You can back the fight to not go the distance at 29/20 with BetUK.
Back the fight to not go the distance at 29/20 with BetUK
Of course, if you do think Covington wins at the weekend, then a decision victory might be the best way to go at 12/5 with bet365. While he has been absent from the Octagon, Covington is a workhorse and will have worked his socks off to ensure he is ready for the encounter.
Edwards was all but beaten against Usman two fights ago when he delivered one of the best KOs in recent memory, and Covington will know where his opponent’s weak points are. If he can get him to the ground and nullify his KO threat, he could grind his way to a points victory and finally get his hands on the title.
Wager on Covington to win by decision at 12/5 with bet365
If you want to place a bet on Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington, complete the following steps:
Leon Edwards and Colby Covington will fight for the UFC Welterweight Championship. For title fights in the division, athletes must weigh in at or under 170 pounds.
Belal Muhammad was picked as the backup for the fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington. Muhammad is currently ranked second in the welterweight division, beneath Kamaru Usman and above Colby Covington, who is ranked third.
Talking about his role, Muhammad has said that he is a reliable fighter in the division, noting that Covington has not fought since 2022.
Both Colby Covington and Leon Edwards are Southpaw fighters and have utilised their stance effectively over the years. Covington has won four of his 20 matches by KO, while Edwards has had more success in this department, winning seven of his 25 by KO.
If it is a submission you want to see on Saturday night, Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington is not the fight that will likely deliver it. Covington has won four of his fights by submission, with his last submission win coming against Jonathan Meunier in 2016. Edwards has secured three submission wins, with his last also coming in 2016 against Albert Tumeov.
Colby Covington and Leon Edwards are both experienced fights, with Edwards having had more fights than his opponent on Saturday. Edwards has been involved in 25 professional bouts, while Covington has had 20.
Both Edwards and Covington have only lost three fights each, and Covington is the only one to lose by TKO. He was stopped in the fifth round against Kamaru Usman in 2019, while Edwards has only ever lost by decision and once by disqualification.
Alexandre Pantoja’s first title defence since defeating Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 in July promises to be one of the night’s most explosive fights. Pantoja is the bookmaker’s favourite for the fight, with BetUK pricing him at 1/2 with Brandon Royval available at 8/5.
The two men have met in the Octagon before, with Pantoja winning by submission in the second round in 2021. The champ’s grappling and submission game is extremely strong, and if he can take Royval to the floor as he did in their first fight, then a submission victory, which is available at 7/4 with Sky Bet, presents excellent value.
Bet on Pantoja to win by submission at 7/4 with Sky Bet
While there is no title on the line in the fight between Paddy Pimblett and Tony Ferguson, the bout promises to be one of the show’s most talked-about encounters, especially in the UK. Paddy Pimblett has been a star since making his debut in the UFC in 2021, winning all four of his fights in the promotion.
He will be looking to make dents in the lightweight top 15, and Ferguson is seen by many as a gatekeeper in the division at this stage in his career. Ferguson has not won a bout since 2019, so backing Pimblett to get the win via KO at 10/3 with bet365 presents some good value.
Bet on Pimblett to win by KO at 10/3 with bet365
There are plenty of exciting fights to keep British viewers up all night at UFC 296. As well as the three discussed fights, Shavkat Rakhmonov will take on Stephen Thompson. Rakhmonov currently sits fifth in the Welterweight rankings, with Thompson just behind him in sixth. Rakhmonov’s fights have all ended in stoppages, and he will be looking to extend that run on Saturday. He is priced at 1/6 with bet365, with Thompson out at 9/2.
Elsewhere, Vicente Luque vs Ian Machado Garry promises to be another Welterweight showcase. The two men are ranked ninth and tenth, respectively, with Luque the favourite to win at 11/4 and Garry at 2/7.
The full card is as follows:
Liam Hoofe
Liam is an experienced iGaming and sports betting journalist based in Cardiff. He has worked in the sports betting industry since 2017 and has provided content for some of the biggest casino and betting brands in the UK. He has also covered football and other sports for both regional and national newspapers.
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